557
FXUS62 KRAH 131844
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
144 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Mid South and Southeast through the
rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

Breezy and dry this afternoon with decreasing high clouds.

A mostly clear and chilly night with lows around freezing for many
areas.

High pressure will build over the central and southern Appalachians
into central NC this evening. The breezy WNW winds late this
afternoon at 10-20 mph are expected to become light this evening and
overnight. Moisture and the resultant high clouds will become
scattered clouds to clear skies. The very dry air at the surface
with dew points in the 20s will aid in excellent radiational
cooling. Expect lows to be 2-3 degrees or more lower than the NBM,
most like the GFS MOS. We will go with generally lower to mid 30s
for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

High pressure and dry conditions with a warming trend. Highs rebound
into the lower to mid 70s Saturday.

High pressure will continue to dominate through Saturday. A quick
return flow from the SW will bring moderating temperatures Friday
and a fairly noticeable warming Saturday. Dew points will also rise
from the 30s Friday into the 40s Saturday with the SW flow. Thus,
the air mass will no longer feel crisp and cool. Other than some
periodic high cloudiness, expect mainly fair skies. Highs Friday
will be in the mid to upper 60s. Lows Friday night in the 40s. Highs
Saturday generally 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 144 PM Thursday...

Three primary features during the long-term period.

1) Dry fropa on Sunday: While clouds may increase, there will be
limited opportunity for pre-frontal moisture advection.  That
coupled with fairly deep wly flow will limit, or preclude the rain
chances. Very warm pre-frontal airmass with highs in the low-mid 70s.

2) A slightly better chance for rain on Tuesday: This rain chance
will be driven by a s/w trough moving east across the Ohio Valley
early in the day. Light rain early in the day will be the result of
isentropic upglide while the aforementioned s/w is still moving
across the Ohio Valley, but once the wave moves off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast, a trailing front will move through our area and may set the
stage for another light rain opportunity, perhaps even shower in
nature.

3) Lingering light rain chances during the midweek?:  A lot of
uncertainty exists during this period regarding how high of a rain
chance there will be, but at least right now the models are
suggesting that Tuesday`s front will stall either over our area or
just to our south then quickly lift back north during the mid-week
period.  In that process, another round of mostly-light isentropic
upglide driven rain would be possible.  Again, mostly light amounts.

Otherwise, once Sunday`s front moves through, temps will be close to
seasonal averages the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are likely to hold across central NC over the next 24
hours. A veil of high cloudiness will become thinner with less
coverage through the day, followed by fair skies this evening
through tonight. NW winds at 10-20 kts will diminish to 5-10
kts this evening.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, dry weather and VFR conditions are likely to
prevail at all sites through Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Badgett