398
FXUS62 KRAH 140152
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
952 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure centered over the northwest Atlantic will build
westward into the region through early next week, bringing warm and
humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 PM Friday...

Aloft, as of the 00Z upper air analyses, high pressure at H5 was
centered off the FL coast, with a low/trough over MO. The H7 and H85
remain saturated, with weak flow throughout the column. Mid-level
disturbances riding the ridge will continue lifting enewd across
portions of the area this eve/early tonight, possibly helping
sustain convection NW of the Triad and over SC as it drifts enewd
but with central NC worked over pretty well today, latest hi-res
guidance suggests the convection should gradually fall apart over
the next several hours. Given the slow but heavy nature of the
convection, any showers/storms that do hold together and move into
the area could produce locally heavy rainfall. Still expect lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Widespread stratus and patchy fog should
continue to develop and spread through daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Friday...

*Persistence forecast with isolated flash flooding risk Saturday
afternoon and evening

A persistent deep SWLY flow between the weakening compact low and
upper trough currently over the lower/middle MS Valley and
subtropical ridging off the Florida coast, will maintain anomalously
moist conditions across the region. PWATs of 2-2.25"(95-98th
percentile)will support pockets of heavy rainfall once again on
Saturday.

The forcing mechanisms driving today`s convective rain chances will
continue to provide the focus again on Saturday---1)Daytime heating
within a moisten laden environment---2) Episodic PVA as weak
disturbances pass through the area--- 3)mesoscale convergence zones,
including seabreeze boundaries and residual outflow boundaries from
prior convection.

Pockets of heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will remain the
primary threat. Urban areas and places with increasing soil
saturation due to the previous day of heavy rainfall would be most
at risk for flooding.

While weak shear and moist lapse rates aloft will limit storm
organization, isolated pulse-type strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out.

Widespread cloud cover and rain chances will temper daytime
temperatures. Highs mainly in the mid 80s.

Storm chances will decrease through the evening and overnight hours,
though isolated showers may linger into early Saturday morning due
to deep moisture in place. Continued muggy with overnight lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s with patchy fog possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

* Above-normal rain chances Sun-Tue will lower to more typical
  scattered showers/storms Wed-Sun, with increasing heat.

Confidence is high that our temperatures will stay at or above
normal next week. A mid level Bermuda anticyclone will extend
westward across FL and the Southeast coast through at least Thu,
keeping us within a weak steering flow. One weak perturbation
tracking through the Ohio Valley will dampen as it approaches W NC
late Sun then moves through our northern sections and VA through
Mon. This should make Sun and Mon our likely wettest days, given the
added forcing for ascent provided by DPVA aloft (weak due to the
fairly light flow) and an uptick in jet-induced upper divergence,
and the persistence of above-normal PW (125-150% of normal, around
1.75-2.0"). The mid level anticyclone should hold the surface
frontal zone to our N, winding from the Midwest through the Mid
Atlantic, keeping us under an offshore-centered surface ridge,
marred only by a weak lee trough over the W Piedmont and Foothills.
With weak flow and high moisture through the column, the risk of
localized flooding will persist, with slow-moving shower/storm
clusters possible and LCL-0C depth reaching aoa 4 km at times,
favoring warm rain processes. Expect highs both Sun and Mon in the
mid 80s to around 90, and morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Behind this weak wave, the mid level ridge will build over NC with
renewed vigor through the mid to late week, helping to warm and
stabilize the mid levels and pushing low level thicknesses to around
10 m above normal. A second very weak wave will scrape by our W and
N sections late Tue into Tue night, thus pops should stay elevated
esp in our NW Tue. But otherwise, we`ll see a downturn in pops to
more typical coverage, scattered storms largely confined to early
afternoon through mid evening, for Wed through Thu. With the warmth
aloft and slightly better heating compared to earlier in the week,
temps should get pretty toasty, with highs rising from the upper
80s/lower 90s Tue to the low-mid 90s Wed/Thu. With afternoon
dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s, heat indices in the
upper 90s to low 100s will be common both days.

By Fri, more substantial mid level troughing over the Upper Midwest
during the middle of the week is expected to shift eastward and move
through the Northeast/Mid Atlantic region. Model solutions begin to
diverge with the speed and amplification of this trough by early
Fri, without a clear winner, although, historically, models often
break down this sort of ridging aloft too quickly. With the lack of
a strong surface cold front with this feature, will keep temps above
normal Fri, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

Most of the deeper convection has come to an end with some lingering
isolated showers over the Triad and light rain over FAY. Much of
this activity should slowly fade over the next few hours with the
stratiform rain likely the last to cease and/or move out of the
terminals. No major changes with the 00z TAFs as cigs should drop
tonight to MVFR to IFR at all terminals with varying degree of
timing and confidence. Given the heavy rain over the FAY terminal
and slow departure of rain until after sunset, they have the
potential to go down to IFR quickly, so adjusted timing quicker by a
couple hours ahead of guidance. Additional scattered to locally
numerous showers and isolated storms will again be possible Sat
afternoon with equal chances at all terminals.

Outlook: Daily afternoon shower and storm chances will exist into
early next week under a typical summertime pattern, along with
morning fog/stratus. The best chance of storms appears favored Sat
and Sun. Coverage in showers/storms may decrease Tues into Wed,
becoming more hit-or-miss.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th
through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday
  afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate
  graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at
  https://www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated.

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less
frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at
https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS
is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating
via social media, and performing other functions that can be
completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren/Blaes/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Swiggett/Kren
EQUIPMENT...RAH