807
FXUS62 KRAH 021959
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
259 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore today as a vigorous mid and upper
level low approaches from the west. A coastal low pressure will
develop just offshore as the mid and upper low pivots across and
offshore the Carolinas tonight and early Monday. High pressure will
follow and build across the Southeast early to mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 258 PM Sunday...

Satellite imagery this afternoon depicted a mid/upper low generating
light rain over central to eastern TN. Further east, increasing sly
moisture transport along the southeast coastline has generated a
thickening shield of multi-layered cloudiness over central NC. A few
light echo returns were evident on radar moving into our southern
areas. It`ll take a bit of time for the lower-levels to saturate,
but expect light rain to start reaching the sfc sometime between 20
to 23Z. After 00Z, steadier light rain should spread across much of
the eastern two-thirds of central NC, persisting into the early
Monday morning hours.

The sfc low has just started to form off the GA coastline. Pretty
confident at this point that the low should stay to our south and
east. This should keep the highest theta-e/instability and general
warm sector well south and east of us. Still, the CAMs do suggest
~100 J/kg of MUCAPE could sneak into our Coastal Plain and generate
some showers. If realized, we could see some isolated three quarters
to maybe an inch of rain in the I-95 vicinity. Overall though,
expect a few tenths (west) to three quarters of an inch (east)
through 12Z Monday.

Overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are expected with patchy
fog through day break.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

* Dry conditions return

A compact upper low/trough centered over the Carolinas will shift
offshore through the early afternoon. In response, a weak coastal
low near the northern NC coast will gradually deepen as it moves out
to sea through Monday night.

The bulk of the steadier rain will exit to the NE around daybreak,
though some patchy light rain may linger across the eastern Piedmont
and Coastal Plain through mid to late morning before ending.
Thereafter, pronounced subsidence in the wake of the departing
system will promote west-to-east clearing through the afternoon.
Expect fairly uniform highs in the lower to mid 60s, accompanied by
mild NWLY gustiness of 15 to 20 mph.

Another Pacific-sourced high will build in from the Lower MS Valley
Monday night. Under weak cold and dry air advection, lows will range
from the upper 30 to lower 40s, with some mid 30s possible in the
Piedmont`s cooler outlying/rural areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

* Patchy to areas of frost Wed morning, mostly in the rural and
  outlying areas of the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.

* Breezy Wed afternoon with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph and
  frequent gusts 20 to 25 mph.

* No appreciable rain chances forecast through the weekend.

A modified Pacific airmass at the center of the surface high located
over the lower Ohio Valley Tues morning will continue to build into
and over the southern Mid-Atlantic by Wed morning. This should
promote calm and mostly clear conditions early Tues evening and
persisting through the overnight period and result in excellent
radiational cooling. Lows will likely bottom out in the mid/upper
30s in the cool spots while urban areas remain the upper 30s to low
40s. Statistical guidance from the ECMWF suggests coldest locations
in the Piedmont may reach into the low 30s, but should stay mostly
at-or-above freezing.

Surface high pressure will slip off the NC coast through Wed morning
and the pressure gradient will tighten over the Mid-Atlantic as a
deepening area of low pressure shifts across the Great Lakes through
Wed evening. Stronger momentum aloft should easily be tapped into
with mostly minimal cloud cover and result in sustained winds of 10
to 15 mph and frequent gusts 20 to 25 mph. Stronger flow at the top
of the mixed layer may support infrequent gusts 30 to 35 mph, but
confidence is lower that these gusts would translate to the surface
as they are more difficult to achieve within WAA regimes and highly
sensitive to any cloud cover, which would temper more efficient
momentum transfer to the surface.

There is high confidence that dry conditions will prevail through
the work week. Precipitation chances may increase Fri night into the
weekend, but the nature and timing of the approaching shortwave is
highly uncertain. Most likely there will be increasing cloud cover
and chance for mostly virga Fri night into Sat with another more
vigorous trough pivoting across the Ohio Valley Sun night into Mon,
but this wave has larger questions about available moisture behind
the first trough. Given these forecast uncertainties, no appreciable
precipitation is expected over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 159 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will persist with light enely sfc flow through this
evening.  LIFR/IFR conditions with rain will then develop tonight
at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI with the passage of a strong upper low. Confidence
in sub-VFR conditions at KINT/KGSO is lower, but think at least MVFR
ceilings arrive there. Expect pockets of light rain to develop as
early as 20 to 23Z, but sub-VFR conditions and steadier rain won`t
arrive till 00Z or so. Sub-VFR ceilings will gradually lift from
west to east through Monday afternoon.

Outlook: The skies are forecast to clear out Monday afternoon into
Tuesday with VFR conditions returning. VFR prevails through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...Luchetti/RAH