677
FXUS62 KRAH 170702
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
302 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across Virginia and the western Carolinas will
dissipate through Thursday. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen
off the Carolina coast into early next week, bringing hot humid
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 302 AM Tuesday...

Flood Watch allowed to expire at 200 AM.

Showers/storms linger through 400 or 500 am...some with locally
heavy rainfall.

Otherwise, hot and humid conditions today with only a small chance
of storms.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms extending from Albemarle to
Raleigh will gradually diminish as support wanes. Once the early
morning convection continues to weaken and die off, there will
likely be areas of stratus and fog. Otherwise, expect the stratus
and fog to burn off mid to late morning with partly sunny skies to
follow. Most guidance with support from CAMS indicates widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Dew
points and low level moisture will remain very high with readings in
the lower to mid 70s. These readings along with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s will feel like mid 90s to near 100. A SW breeze
around 10 mph will help for some slight relief. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 AM Tuesday...

Hotter and still very humid, only isolated thunderstorms

After a bit of stratus and fog, mostly sunny and hot conditions are
expected Wednesday. Only isolated PM thunderstorms are forecast given
the strong upper ridging and drier air aloft. Unfortunately, the drier
air does not translate to the surface as dew points remain very high.
Expect lower to mid 70s dew points with highs 90-95 NW to central and SE.
SW winds will pick up during the afternoon making it a bit more
tolerable at 15-20 mph. Expect mainly clear skies Wednesday
night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday
afternoon and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches the
region. There is still some timing uncertainty as to when the
front will move - models are currently showing the greatest
amount of precipitation during the evening. If the frontal
passage is indeed during the overnight hours, this will help to
limit the severe weather potential. However, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted most of the area (except
southeastern counties) under a 15% probability on Thursday,
equivalent to a Slight Risk. The primary threat would be
damaging wind gusts. The front will linger across the North
Carolina coastline Friday and Saturday before dissipating,
keeping minimal chances for rain east of US-1 both afternoons.
With no synoptic forcing around, Sunday and Monday both appear
to be dry days.

The greater hazard during the extended forecast may not come
from the thunderstorms, but from the heat and humidity. On
Wednesday and Thursday, a good portion of the forecast area
should have heat index values between 100 and 105, which is just
below Heat Advisory criteria of 105. Both of those days will
have highs in most locations in the 90s. While the cold front
will drop high temperatures a few degrees on Friday, highs will
rise again for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with all locations
reaching into the 90s. In addition, with the exception of
northern locations Thursday and Friday nights, lows will only
fall into the 70s throughout this stretch of days. The compound
effects of prolonged heat and humidity with little relief
overnight could be problematic for some over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are expected to slowly
weaken over central NC through 09z-10z. These may affect the RDU
area, but should stay south of the Triad region. Otherwise, MVFR to
IFR cigs are expected to develop between 07z-10z, lasting until 12z-
13z, with improvement to VFR expected by 15z to 17z at all sites as
cigs rise to VFR.

Only isolated showers and storms are expected during the afternoon
into the evening with generally VFR conditions.

Looking beyond 06z Wed, there is a chance of sub-VFR conditions
early Wednesday morning. While isolated storms may occur Wednesday
afternoon, the next best chance of thunderstorms will be late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, when some storms could
become strong. Otherwise, chances for afternoon/evening storms will
be minimal.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in
Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer
system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and
water information, and to send life-saving information, such as
weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and
requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products
for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at
NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast
products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected
during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from
AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

  Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
  Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
  Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 mhz)
  Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
  Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
  Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
  Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
  https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to
Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett
EQUIPMENT...RAH