297
FXUS62 KRAH 151312
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several disturbances aloft will combine with a stalled front over
VA to bring rounds of showers/storms through the weekend. Strong
high pressure aloft over the northwest Atlantic will build
westward into the region through early to mid next week, bringing
hot and humid conditions, and less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Sunday...

*Flood Watch remains in effect from 1 PM through 11 PM tonight

*Significant impacts such as flooded structures, impassable roadways
and possible water rescues are possible in the hardest hit areas.


Forecast is in good shape with only minor, cosmetic updates needed
to near-time forecast grids.

A weak upper trough traversing the region will interact with a quasi-
stationary frontal zone draped across the Va and tidewater and
northeastern NC, along with an anomalously moist airmass, to support
favorable conditions for heavy rain and flooding this afternoon
through late this evening. As daytime heating fuels moderate
instability, convection will re-develop and become efficient
at producing heavy rainfall.

By this evening, convective outflows will help to propel the frontal
zone and enhanced axis of moisture convergence and lift south into
central NC during the evening and overnight hours. Rainfall totals
on the order of 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts expected.
Areas with saturated soils from recent days of heavy rainfall,
particularly urban areas, will be especially vulnerable to flooding.
Significant impacts such as flooded structures, impassable roadways
and possible water rescues are possible in the hardest hit areas.

Never drive through floodwaters and avoid streams, rivers, and
drainage areas.


Previous discussion:
PM showers and thunderstorms likely with heavy rainfall.

Recent areas of very heavy rainfall and even isolated flash
flooding have led to nearly saturated conditions over a good
portion of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. A backdoor front that
has been nearly stationary over VA the past few days is expected
to near the NC/VA border this afternoon. As a subtle mid level
trough moves over the mountains this afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms are expected both over the higher terrain and
near the boundary over VA. As new thunderstorm outflows move
south, the focus for the heaviest rainfall may set up over
portions of northern and northeastern NC this afternoon into the
evening.

The area of most concern and highest flash flood potential is
over areas from Greensboro to Roxboro east to Rocky Mount and
Roanoke Rapids where the heaviest rain fell Saturday. Look for
scattered thunderstorms to become numerous this afternoon and
evening with locally 1 to 3+ inches of rainfall in the Watch
area. The latest CAMS suggest several areas of concern within
the watch area. Therefore, flash flooding may occur anywhere in
and near the watch area.

The severe threat will be limited by forecast poor lapse rates;
however, upper support by the approaching trough, heating, and
a focus near the boundary and outflows suggest some threat of
wind across the northern areas.

The showers and storms will taper of late evening, with a slight
chance to chance of showers/iso storms through early morning.
Otherwise, becoming partly cloudy with areas of stratus again
late tonight. Highs today generally 85-90. Lows tonight in the
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Another day with scattered to numerous PM showers and
thunderstorms is expected Monday. Most guidance shifts the
backdoor front into NE NC, with outflows likely extending and
focusing new afternoon thunderstorms in an arc from SW Virginia
south and east across much of central NC. Another flood watch
may be needed with QPF of 0.5 to 1 inch on average - with
locally 2+ inches. The PW`s are forecast to be a bit lower than
today and the convection may be a bit south and west of the
storms of today, thus the marginal instead of slight risk of
flash flooding for Monday PM. Highs will be mostly in the 80s
with extensive cloudiness. Lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 151 AM Sunday...

The upper pattern over the extended period will largely feature
persistent ridging through Wednesday. The ridge will break down some
Thursday/Friday as a trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic.

Still expecting decent coverage Tuesday with persistent swly flow
and anomalous moisture flux across the area (ensemble guidance still
maintains ~2 in PWAT over our area). Isolated flash flooding will be
possible in the afternoon and evening.  By Wednesday, the Bermuda
high is forecast to retrograde slightly, and as such, the better
moisture appears to shift a bit further north. Still expecting some
afternoon showers and storms, but coverage may be a bit lower
compared to prior days. The aforementioned upper trough will push
across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. This will likely
trigger afternoon showers and storms. However, flow aloft may take
on a wnwly component, and as such drier/limited coverage may ensue.
We`ll have to monitor Thursday/Friday, as some deterministic
guidance continues to indicate perhaps a bit better bulk-layer shear
potential (ML severe outlook guidance is also hinting at the
potential for severe weather these days). A sfc front will move
across central NC and stall along the coast sometime Friday. This
will focus shower and storm chances along our far
southern/southeastern counties Friday. Guidance is then in decent
agreement moving a drier sfc high/airmass into central NC on
Saturday with PWAT possibly dropping into the 1.25 to 1.5 inch
range.

Expect temperatures to soar into the lower to mid 90s for much of
the extended. Heat indices may reach near Heat Advisory criteria
middle of next week in our southern counties.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM Sunday...

IFR cigs are expected to develop in the moist boundary layer through
the early morning hours, then gradually lifting out between 13z and
15z Sunday. VFR continues are expected by around 15z-17z. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the afternoon
into the evening from the Triad and Triangle to RWI.

Looking beyond 06z Mon, scattered to numerous showers and storms,
focused through the evening hours, are expected through Sun evening
and again Mon and Tue afternoon/evening. A period of sub-VFR cigs is
possible early Mon morning and early Tue morning. The chance for
storms and early-morning low clouds will decrease for Wed/Thu as
high pressure builds aloft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through
18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett
EQUIPMENT...RAH