572
FXUS62 KRAH 251828
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
226 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic
through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward
Bermuda over the weekend. This will result in a continuation of
dangerously hot weather across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: Minor changes with the morning forecast update. Temperatures
were adjusted using the latest hi-res model data, with highs still
expected to be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices in the 100-
105 range for the western counties warranted the Heat Advisory,
while elsewhere will see ranges from 105-111 degrees resulted in the
Extreme Heat Warning until 8pm. Timing of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening have not changed too much as newest model
guidance is showing the trend of pulse and multicells to develop
this afternoon and evening with a north to south/southwest motion.
After the storms dissipate shortly after sunset, temperatures should
drop into the low 70s overnight.

As of 330 AM Wednesday...

* An Extreme Heat Warning (east) and a Heat Advisory (west) remain
  in effect through 800 PM this evening.

* There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across much of central NC this afternoon and evening.

Aloft, high centered just west of the Appalachians today will become
more elongated W-E across and to the north of the area tonight. At
the surface, high pressure should remain over the srn/cntl
Appalachians through tonight, with a trough extending swwd over
central NC. Low-level thicknesses are expected to max out around
1440-1445 meters this eve. Surface dewpoints should still be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s for much of the day, resulting in RH values in
the 40s/50s percent. The combination of temperatures around 100
degrees and RH values in the 40s percent will still result in heat
index values ranging from 101 to 111 this aft/eve.

Additionally, thunderstorms are still expected to develop over
central NC this aft/eve. Forecast soundings show inverted-V
profiles, with moderate to strong instability (MUCAPE of 2000-3000
J/Kg off the HRRR and 2500-3500 J/Kg off the RAP). While effective
shear will be in the 15-20 kt range, low-level lapse rates are
forecast to be quite strong (8-8.5 C/Km). Generally expect pulse
storms and multicells to be the primary mode of convection. With
substantial DCAPE expected across the area, storms will be capable
of producing strong/damaging wind gusts. The convection should taper
off between sunset and midnight tonight. Temperatures should drop as
a result of convection this aft/eve, and lows generally in the low
to mid 70s are expected tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 226 PM Wednesday...

Heat Advisory for all the region Thursday 11 AM through 700 PM
Thursday.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

The only significant change to this period was to expand the Heat
Advisory to include all of central North Carolina Thursday. The
convection this evening and what is expected on Thursday will temper
the heat a little, but highs should still reach the mid to upper 90s
with heat indices of 102 to 109 NW to south and urban areas. Thus,
advisory level heat will continue.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of additional pulse type
severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The overall storms
should be scattered with a more localized damaging wind threat.

The chance of storms will decrease by late Thursday evening with the
loss of heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

* Continued above normal temps but with less intense heat.

* Little change in the stagnant weak-flow regime through Mon,
  yielding daily late-day storm chances, mainly across the NW half.

* Convection chances increase by Tue.

During this period, the baggy mid-upper low over the Southeast
states will drift slowly NW and N while weakening further, trending
to a broad weak trough over the Mid South and western Carolinas by
late weekend then drifting to over and just E of the Appalachians by
Mon. While we`ll no doubt see small day-over-day changes in the
sensible weather, given the weak pressure patterns through a deep
layer, poor mid level flow, and the lack of any significant weather
systems over much of this period, will follow persistence for the
forecast, with temps generally staying above normal in the 90s (as
low level thicknesses stay about 5-10 m above normal each day) and
with late-day scattered storms focused over our N and W areas. With
humidity still elevated, both forecast heat indices and the
experimental Heat Risk product show that additional heat advisories
may be needed Fri-Mon, mainly along and E of Hwy 1, but overall the
most intense and dangerous heat will have subsided. By Tue, a
northern stream trough digging over ON/James Bay/QC and the W Great
Lakes will shift into the Ohio Valley, and this increase in low and
mid level flow with an approaching corresponding cold front should
prompt greater and earlier storm coverage Tue with increased
cloudiness. Expect highs closer to normal, around 90-95. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 126 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered to possibly numerous thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon spreading SW through the evening. Pulse type
severe storms with damaging wind gusts will pose a hazard with and
near these storms. Otherwise, a return to VFR conditions tonight
with patchy fog possible. Mostly MVFR conditions expected. Another
round of scattered storms is expected Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection
and early morning fog/low stratus through the end of the week and
weekend. Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 25      77 (2010)      75 (2015)       75 (1952)
June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)
June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 25      100 (1952)      101 (1914)     102 (1914)
June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)
June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-
024>028-040>043-076>078-088-089.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ007>011-023>028-
040>043-075>078.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ021>023-038-039-
073>075-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...Badgett