071
FXUS62 KRAH 201801
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will move north across the region late tonight into
early Friday before moving back over the state Saturday as a cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

There is a stationary front currently extending from Tennessee
southeast along the South Carolina/Georgia border over the Atlantic
Ocean. An area of low clouds that was across much of the eastern
half of the forecast area continues to push east, keeping clouds
into the early afternoon east of US-1 and north of I-40. Just some
high clouds are expected this afternoon and evening before cloud
cover increases with the stationary front lifting to the north as a
warm front. There is no rain in the forecast through the evening,
with chances generally to the west of I-95 during the overnight
hours. The additional cloud cover will help keep overnight lows
warmer than last night, with values ranging from the low 40s in the
northeast (where the clouds will take the longest to move in) to the
mid 50s in the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

Overview: Aloft, a potent s/w lifting newd into the central Plains
will shear out and track ewd across the OH/TN Valley as it gets
picked up by the nrn stream flow Fri/Fri night. The sub-tropical
ridge will flatten out and get shunted south of the region as the
s/w approaches. At the surface, a warm front will lift nwd across
the area early Fri, with swly flow will increasing in the wake of
the warm front and ahead of the next system approaching from the
west. As the next system approaches, the low will generally
ride/become a bit W-E elongated along the warm front as it tracks
ewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic Fri night.

Precipitation: There should be a lull in rain Fri aft/eve, with
chances increasing Fri night, mainly across the north, but that
remains a bit uncertain, as model guidance varies in that regard.
Will maintain the slight chance/chance for Fri night until there is
better agreement suggesting differently.

Temperatures: Above to well above normal temperatures Fri/Fri night,
with highs ranging from mid 70s south to mid/upper 60s NE and lows
in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

A cold front will move across the region Saturday bringing scattered
showers with a few isolated storms in the afternoon. While PoPs are
generally only between 20-30% there is still a good chance of precip
anywhere across central NC as the front moves through the region, it
will be more isolated to scattered coverage category. The timing of
the front will really determine how much CAPE can get into the
region, where right now models are showing low end CAPE of only a
couple hundred J/kgs in the afternoon. By late afternoon early
evening the front should sweep through the region with cool dry high
pressure filtering in behind. Temperatures Saturday ahead of the
front will be 15-20 degrees above average with highs in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday will be a bit cooler as high northerly flow and high pressure
builds into the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s with
lows in the low 40s. A few cooler spots could drop into the upper
30s. High pressure will slide east/northeast Monday with
temperatures trending warmer with highs int eh mid to upper 60s and
low in the mid to upper 40s.

On Tuesday a low pressure system over the mid MS valley and TN
valley will continue east with a warm front stretching east across
the southern Mid-Atlantic region. The warm front is expected to lift
north late Tuesday bringing another chance of precip to the area
with the best chance late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. As
the low shifts east into New England and another low develops in
Ontario Canada, the associated cold fronts swing across the US which
are expected to move into the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday and
the other one sometime on Thursday. The models are showing these
front to be mainly dry but will keep an eye on any moisture
development. Depending on the timing of the fronts, temperatures
will trend cooler mid to late week for Thanksgiving. Highs Wed will
be mid 60s to mid 70s and Thursday will be mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

TAF period: Much of the first 24 hours should have VFR conditions,
but the 18Z TAF period may begin with MVFR ceilings at RWI before
the clouds move off to the east. The other potential for
restrictions will come late tonight into Friday morning, where
guidance varies as to how low clouds will be - went with MVFR at
INT/GSO/RDU, but there is guidance showing the potential for IFR
heights during that time period. During that period of low clouds,
some light rain will be possible with minimal amounts forecast. The
wind should be out of the southwest no more than 5 kt through the
period.

Outlook: Another round of rain and restrictions will be possible
Friday night into Saturday as a cold front moves through. Sunday and
Monday should be dry with VFR conditions, then restrictions and
showers could arrive as early as Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TG
NEAR TERM...TG
SHORT TERM...KCP
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TG