475
FXUS62 KRAH 311656
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1256 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast will move
further offshore as high pressure to our north extends south into
the area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

* Pleasant weather with below normal highs/lows
* Comfortable humidity levels
* Convective storm chances largely stay west of central NC

Aloft, a shortwave trough over WV will track into central and
southern VA before reaching near Delmarva by early Mon. The system
will largely track to our north, but good divergence overhead and
increasing high-level RH will favor lots of mid-high cloudiness from
time to time. At the surface, 1025mb high pressure will nose down
from PA/NY, resulting in a cooler NNE flow. Guidance also depicts,
and it is evident on satellite, an area of low pressure off the
GA/SC coasts that is expected to track ENE over the next 24 hours
over the western Atlantic. The ECMWF appears the strongest with this
low, deepening it to 1008 mb. Regardless, it won`t affect us but
could aid for some gustiness in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain to
20-25 mph at times. Highs should be below normal in the upper 70s to
low 80s and lows cool in the low to mid 50s, except upper 50s in the
far SE as clouds clear out.

Morning low clouds will be possible over the western and southern
Piedmont in a moist NE flow, but these should mix out by mid-
morning. As for storm chances, with the front moving to our south,
the main chance would be from some upslope convection along the NC
mountains that could spill over into the western Piedmont from any
resultant outflows. The latest HREF continues to keep storms west of
the Triad, with only the FV3 furthest east with storms and even
those fall apart when reaching the Triad. Instability is lacking, as
well as dewpoints forecast to be rather dry in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

* Continued temperatures below seasonal averages
* Dry weather and comfortable humidity continues

Continued troughiness will exist on Monday, with a shortwave
rotating cyclonically over the northern Mid-Atlantic. High pressure
will continue to extend down the Eastern Seaboard, with below normal
low-level thicknesses for the beginning of September. Regardless of
its overall strength, the offshore low will continue to exit further
away from the East Coast as it moves NE over the Atlantic Ocean.
Some gusts up to 20 mph are possible, especially in the east.

We should see highs once again quite pleasant for our Labor Day in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
will favor lows in the low to mid/upper 50s. As for dewpoints during
the day, low humidity will once again dominate with dewpoints
perhaps mixing out into the upper 40s west to mid 50s in the east.
The day should stay dry with a lack of any forcing and instability
in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Sunday...

* Several fronts provide roller coaster temperatures mid-week into
  the weekend.

* Precipitation chances remain limited through extended forecast.

Persistent northerly surface winds gradually veer to southerly Wed
night and provides several days of southerly moisture return and
rising low-level thicknesses into the weekend. This will result in a
gradual rise in temperatures and increasing humidity from Wed to
Sat. The warmest of which will likely be Sat ahead of the next
frontal passage and appreciable airmass change. Statistical guidance
suggest a rise into the mid/upper 80s around the Triangle is
expected with around 90 across the Sandhills. The most aggressive
with the southerly temp advection is the deterministic GFS, which
has a tendency to over mix and result in higher temperatures in the
medium range, and suggests at least mid 90s could be possible. This
solution has been thrown out given its drastic differences from the
general consensus forecast, but a trend to watch heading into the
weekend.

Precipitation chances remain limited through the extended forecast
with the best chances Wed afternoon/evening and potentially again on
Sat. The moisture return off the Atlantic and the gradually rising
temperatures may result in weak instability over the Piedmont Wed
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms may be possible as
neutral H5 height tendency and presence of a lee-trough in the
Piedmont may trigger shallow convection. Weakly enhanced
southwesterlies aloft will contribute to 20-30 kts of shear during
peak heating and may result in weakly organized multicells if
convection were to develop. By Fri, convection should be greatly
limited by strong shortwave ridging building across the Mid-Atlantic
and abundant dry air aloft. Precipitation chances may again increase
on Sat as a more appreciable cold front is forecast to traverse the
Mid-Atlantic, but timing differences result in low probabilities at
this point.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: MVFR cigs may linger for an hour or two this
morning at KINT and KGSO, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period. Scattered to broken high clouds expected
this morning, decreasing in the aft/eve Sun. Nely winds will
increase this morning/early aft, highest at KFAY where gusts to
around 20-25 kts are possible. Gusts of 15-20 kts possible at KRDU
and KRWI, lower at KINT and KGSO. -KC

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are then expected Monday through
Wednesday. Rain chances may increase late week with the potential
for a weak coastal low to develop late Wednesday into Thursday,
followed by an approach of a cold front from the west. However,
aviation impacts are expected to be limited. -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...KC/CBL