355
FXUS62 KRAH 101920
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper low will swing across the Great Lakes today. A trailing
cold front, moisture-starved east of the Appalachians, will move
across central and eastern NC tonight. High pressure will follow and
build across the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

* Windy conditions will develop ahead of a dry cold front

An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough currently over the Upper
Midwest and embedded within a broader long wave trough, will dive
eastward across the southern Great Lakes and into the mid-Atlantic
Northeast through this evening and tonight. At the surface, an
accompanying surface low will drag a moisture-starved cold front
through central NC this evening and overnight.

The primary weather impact will be the development of windy
conditions within the pre-frontal regime. As daytime heating
commences and the boundary layer deepens, downward momentum transfer
will tap into a 40-45 kts LLJ, allowing some of the stronger winds
to mix down to the surface. By mid to late morning, sustained winds
of 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts between 25 to 35 mph,
occasionally reaching 35 to 40 mph at times. Residents should secure
loose outside items, including holiday decorations.

Skies will be variably cloudy, consisting of mainly mid and high
level clouds streaming across the area. Temperatures will moderate
closer to seasonable normals, with highs ranging from near 50 north
to mid 50s south.

Following the dry cold frontal passage this evening and tonight, CAA
will ensue. Skies will clear and gusts will diminish. Overnight lows
will fall into the lower 30s north to mid 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

* Dry with well below normal temperatures

A long wave trough and broad cyclonic NW flow aloft will remain
established over the Eastern US. At the surface, high pressure
extending from the lower MS Valley will build into SE US,
reinforcing a dry and stable airmass across central NC.

Residual low-level CAA early Thursday will keep temperatures well
below normal. Despite mostly sunny skies, highs will only reach the
the lower/mid 40s north to upper 40s south, approximately 8 to 12
degrees below normal. Winds will be notably lighter than Wednesday,
with sustained NWLY winds of 5 to 10mph, accompanied by modest
gustiness into the teens.

Thursday night, the surface high shifts overhead, allowing winds to
decouple. Increasing high clouds may temper radiational cooling
somewhat; however lows are still expected to fall into the mid to
upper 20s across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 218 PM Wednesday...

Thursday night through Friday: Downstream of an anomalous mid-level
ridge over the Pacific northwest, central NC will be located under
the base of a northern stream trough. At the sfc, a high will anchor
over Florida on Friday promoting swly return flow. Weak lift
associated with increasing low-level WAA (and some divergence aloft)
will likely generate a shield of light precipitation across the Ohio
Valley late Thursday night that will spread sse through the TN
Valley and into the southern Appalachians through Friday afternoon.
Given the wnwly flow aloft, the anomalous moisture associated with
this system should largely ring out over the western slopes of the
Blue Ridge mountains and across the VA Piedmont.  There`s a chance
the NC/VA border locations could see a some snow flakes, but even
forecast soundings in that vicinity show dry sub-cloud layers and
little saturation in the dendritic growth zone. Will maintain NBM`s
slight chance for snow showers for a few hours Friday morning, but
not expecting any hazards with this system.

Locations along the SC/NC border may see some sunshine Friday, and
as such we could have a fairly steep temperature gradient Friday
afternoon with highs in the lower 40s (N) to mid 50s (S). Overnight
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s are expected.


Saturday through Monday: After a relatively mild (highs in the lower
50s) and dry Saturday, an anomalous upper trough will eject out of
central Canada and dive southeast across the eastern US through
Monday evening. Associated cold air will spill down the east coast
with some of the coldest air of the season (850 mb temperatures will
fall into the 2nd percentile by Sunday night).  Highs on Sunday will
reach the lower 40s (N) to upper 40s (S). The CAA will really ramp
up Sunday night into Monday, with lows dropping into the mid to
upper teens Sunday night/Monday morning. Forecast soundings still
indicate good post-frontal mixing potential through sunrise Monday
morning. If the cold air does indeed make it over the mountain early
Monday morning, there could be a a brief period where some locations
may flirt with Cold Weather Advisory apparent temperatures. Will
continue to monitor as we get closer to this weekend, but regardless
Monday morning should be quite chilly.

With the frontal passage Sunday evening, there could be some chance
for precipitation primarily along and east of US-1. Depending on the
timing, some wintry mix may be possible. Overall though,
precipitation chances look limited through this period.

Tuesday through Wednesday: After another chilly night Monday into
Tuesday (lows into the upper teens/low 20s), return sswly flow will
develop pushing highs into the upper 40s Tuesday and lower 50s
Wednesday. Another short-wave may approach next Wednesday which
could be our next shot at any precipitation beyond this coming
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday...

While VFR conditions are forecast through the 18Z TAF period, a band
of light precipitation (mostly virga) and ceilings as low as 4-7
thousand ft will overspread cntl NC this evening, ahead of a
vigorous mid/upr-level trough. Strong and gusty swly surface winds
will otherwise prevail with afternoon heating, then diminish after
sunset. They will do so while an unseasonably strong low-level jet
will remain overhead, with an associated risk of low-level wind
shear or mechanical turbulence tonight. Occasional nwly gustiness
will be possible on Thu, strongest and most likely from 14-17Z.

Outlook: A band of snow and flight restrictions will accompany a
warm front across VA Fri morning, the srn periphery of which may
clip INT and GSO with low VFR to MVFR ceilings and a period of light
snow or flurries in the several hours centered around 12Z Fri.
Strong and gusty nnwly surface winds will result behind an Arctic
cold front Sun afternoon and evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS