710
FXUS62 KRAH 281818
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
118 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will build in from the Midwest through Saturday,
then track east off the New England coast Saturday night. A cold
front will move south through the region Sunday, before settling
just to our south Sunday night. A more significant storm system is
expected to develop along this front over the northern Gulf on
Monday, then track northeast along the Coastal Plain of the
Carolinas Monday night through Tuesday night. Chilly high pressure
will then build in from the west on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

* Coldest Night Of The Season

The center of Canadian high pressure(cP airmass), currently
positioned over the mid MS Valley, will build directly overhead
tonight. NWLY gusts of 15 to 25 kts this afternoon will diminish
around sunset, with winds becoming light and calm overnight. The
combination of calm winds, clear skies, and dry airmass with
dewpoints in the teens, will promote excellent radiational cooling
conditions.

The very cold low-level thicknesses of 1275-1280m, more typical of
mid-winter, will result in the coldest night of the season. Expect
lows in the lower to middle 20s, with some upper teens possible in
outlying rural area(12-17 degrees below normal for late November).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

* Continued Cold/Chilly

Canadian high centered over the region on Saturday will drift east
and will move off the mid-Atlantic coast late in the day, reaching
the northern Atlantic waters by early Sunday. Downstream of a
mid/upper level shortwave trough ejecting from the central Plains
into the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes, quasi-zonal flow aloft
will transition to backing SWLY flow Saturday night.

Despite compliments of full sunshine, temperatures will remain
chilly Saturday, with highs in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s
south --- 12-15 degrees below normal for late November.

Weak shortwave impulses coupled and strengthening warm moist air
advection within the SWLY flow aloft will lead to increasing clouds
Saturday evening, with skies becoming mostly cloudy Saturday night.
The thickening cloud cover may produce a non-diurnal temperature
trend overnight, with lows occurring during the first half of the
night,followed by nearly steady or slowing warming temperatures
toward daybreak. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Overall model consensus favors keeping measurable precip chances
after daybreak Sunday. However, a brief period of fleeting, patchy
light freezing rain or drizzle cannot be ruled out across the NW
Piedmont during the pre-dawn hours. Any impacts should be very
limited in time and coverage, with temperatures rising above
freezing shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of mostly light showers and milder Sunday as a cold front
 moves through the region.

- Cold and dry high pressure will follow the front on Sunday   night
and Monday.

- A strong mid/upper level trough will approach from the Plains
states late Monday night and Tuesday, aiding in the development of a
storm system along the Gulf Coast states Monday night.

- A cold rain is expected to develop/overspread much of NC Monday
night night and Tuesday as the low pressure tracks NE along the
Coastal Plain of the Carolinas. Rain lingers Tuesday night.

- At the current time, it appears that the coldest arctic air
associated  with the high pressure as it moves progressively from
the Great Lakes   to off the New England coast - as the rain
develops and spreads into   central NC - will remain just north of
our region.

- P-Type is expected to be all rain at the current time, supported
by the coldest air remaining just to our north (partial thicknesses
that support snow/sleet remain north), warming in the mid levels to
(50+ degrees at 5K feet) and a progressively moving high with the
main precipitation event - essentially support cold rain and any
freezing rain at the beginning of the event Monday night a fleeting
non-hazardous issue.

- Remaining chilly with drier weather and some modification in
temperatures with the sun returning Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION DETAILS...

Sunday will be milder with a chance of light showers with the
passage of the cold front. Highs in the 40s west and 50s east. Some
in-situ CAD in the Piedmont will keep it chilly there.

Conditions then turn chilly and if this were early January, we would
have significant p-type issues. Still, this is a favorable pattern
for p-type problems in the winter season and will have to be
watched.

Trends continue to be wetter with widespread QPF of 1 inch currently
indicated from late Monday night through Tuesday night as the low
pressure tracks NE along the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas from the
Gulf Coast states. For snow/ice, we would need the current arctic
surface high pressure to drive more of the low level cold air deeper
into the region Monday and Monday evening. It appears that the near
surface and deeper cold remain just to our north. The high is also
progressive - and the CAA ends as the precipitation begins. Another
red flag.

Bottom line... Expect a cold rain late Monday night through Tuesday
night. We will watch the forecast storm track and the arctic air
mass over the coming runs to see if we need to trend toward some
freezing rain mention over the Piedmont Damming region of north-
central NC. Otherwise, it will be cold with the rain. Some areas
hold in the 30s Tuesday.

After the system lifts out to the NE, expect a continuation of
chilly conditions with some modification with the addition of
sunshine by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

Through 18z Saturday: A very dry, cold, and stable airmass(cP
airmass) building into the region will support VFR conditions
through the forecast period.

NWLY gusts of 15 to 25 kts will diminish this evening with winds
becoming light and calm tonight as the surface high builds directly
overhead.

Outlook: VFR conditions are likely to continue through early Sunday.
A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night, bringing a chance of showers and associated sub-VFR
restrictions. The cold front will stall south of the area Monday
with dry VFR conditions giving way to widespread rain/showers and
sub-VFR restrictions late Monday night and Tuesday as a series of
weak sfc lows/waves track through the SE US and up the Carolina
Coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...CBL