432
FXUS62 KRAH 161906
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

The mid-level high to the east of FL will extend farther west closer
to the Southeast US coast today and tonight, resulting in more
westerly flow aloft across central NC and an overall decrease in
convective coverage and intensity compared to yesterday. Current
radar and satellite depicts isolated to scattered showers and storms
developing over eastern SC into the southern NC Piedmont, Sandhills
and central/southern Coastal Plain, which got started early in the
day (by late morning) in the moist S/SW flow regime with PW values
in the 2 to 2.3 inch range. Surface dew points in the 70s are also
helping MLCAPE reach 2500-3000 J/kg across central NC. Expect
convection to continue through the rest of the afternoon, most
widespread in the far SE where POPs are high chance to likely, as
the sea breeze provides a focus for development. But storms will be
of the weaker, pulse variety given the complete lack of shear across
the region.

Farther north in the drier westerly flow aloft, convection is having
a difficult time developing so far, with only some shallow cumulus
across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. CAMS depict
some isolated showers and storms may develop or move into that
region later this afternoon, perhaps along outflows from the current
convection. But overall expect a relative minimum in coverage over
the northern Piedmont, as terrain-induced convection largely remains
pinned near the Mountains amid the SW flow in the low levels. A
stationary front and shortwave trough over the OH Valley and
northern Mid-Atlantic will result in more organized convection there
that stays to our north. Today`s high temperatures across central NC
will be within a couple degrees of normal, in the upper-80s to lower-
90s, resulting in heat indices as high as the upper-90s to low-100s.

Convection will quickly diminish by 23z-00z this evening with loss
of daytime heating and a lack of any other forcing mechanism. The
muggy air mass in place will keep warm low temperatures in the lower-
to-mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

The subtropical high will extend even farther west on Thursday,
shifting the axis of highest PW values to the north and west. This
will result in a decrease in shower and storm chances in the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where coverage will only be isolated at
best. The best chances will move to the northern Piedmont, as the
925-850mb flow shifting to a more westerly direction should help
convection over the Mountains and Foothills drift farther east
compared to today. Surface dew points in the 70s will again help
MLCAPE values reach 2000+ J/kg. However, coverage will still only be
isolated to scattered with the increasing ridging influence, as a
mid/upper trough passes well to our north over the Great Lakes and
New England. Weak flow and shear will also still prevail, so not
expecting a severe threat with any storms.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in
the lower-to-mid-90s and the continued humid air mass yielding heat
indices in the low-100s for many spots outside of the NW Piedmont.
While a heat index of 105F is possible from the Triangle south and
east, opted against issuing a Heat Advisory given reaching the 105F
criteria would be brief and isolated. Still, exercising heat
precautions would be prudent especially for anyone spending large
amounts of time outdoors.

Convection will again quickly diminish after dark with loss of
daytime heating. Even milder lows in the mid-to-upper-70s are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...

* Another stretch of hot weather with heat indices peaking in the
  100-109 range across central NC, highest across the Sandhills and
  Coastal Plain.

The center of the mid-level anti-cyclone will gradually migrate
westward across the Southeast US, Deep South, and Lower MS Valley
through the middle of next week. Central NC will generally remain
under the high or the nrn periphery of it through the extended
forecast period. A mid level s/w trough will pass to the north Sat
night/Sun, with a trailing disturbance Sun night/Mon. At the
surface, W-E elongated high pressure will stretch from the ern Gulf,
across FL and east over the Atlantic toward Bermuda through the
weekend. To the north, a lee trough will linger over central NC.
This trough may finally shift ewd as a cold front tries to move in
from the north early-mid next week. A weak low may develop within
the trough and lift newd across the area over the weekend, somewhat
coincident with the s/w aloft passing to the north. The best chances
and greatest coverage of showers and storms will be over the weekend
with the s/w passage and ahead of the approaching front from the
north. Otherwise, cannot rule out diurnally driven convection,
especially along the VA border, through the end of the week. The
bigger concern will be the extended period of hot, humid weather,
with little overnight relief, through at least the weekend. Highs
will range from low 90s NW to mid/upper 90s south and east, with
heat index values in the 100 to 109 range along and east of US-1.
Overnight lows in that area may only dip into the mid 70s, further
exacerbating the heat risk, especially over the Sandhills and srn
Coastal Plain. Some relief is possible next week if the front moves
into the area and high pressure is able to build in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers and a few storms are developing across the
Sandhills and southern/central coastal plain counties and will
persist into the early evening before gradually dissipating. Brief
periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are most likely at KRWI and
KFAY, with possible impact at KRDU. KGSO and KINT terminals should
remain dry.

Compare to recent nights and mornings, model guidance indicates a
lower potential for sub-VFR restrictions from stratus overnight into
Thursday morning. However, favoring persistence, a tempo group for
MVFR ceilings will be included at all TAF sites between 10-14z Thurs.

Ceilings will lift to VFR by mid to late morning Thursday as daytime
heating lifts and mixes out any low ceilings. SWLY winds will
increase by the afternoon, with occasional gustiness of 15 to 20 kts.

Scattered showers and storms to redevelop Thursday afternoon and
lingering into the evening hours, with the highest coverage expected
across the western terminals (KINT and KGSO).

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, along with patchy late night
and early morning fog and stratus through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL