484
FXUS62 KRAH 160058
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
858 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will continue to interact with a weak
frontal boundary as it sags south across the area through Monday.
By Tuesday, the front will lift back north as a warm front, with
strong upper level ridging building westward across the region
through mid to late week, bringing hot and humid conditions, and
less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 858 PM Sunday...

So far this evening, the main concerns have been more related to
thunderstorm winds and hail, rather than flash flooding, as the
storms have mostly been moving pretty quickly to the east and
northeast. However, given lingering moist airmass and instability,
coupled with additional activity upstream that is progged by many of
the CAMs to move across central NC over the next several hours,
we`ll continue the current flood watch until it expires at 11 PM.

One of the primary drivers of this activity is a well-defined upper
short wave trough seen on current water vapor imagery moving across
the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic regions. This feature
provided just enough shear, when coupled with moist low levels and
related instability to set the stage for the aforementioned
convection. The other primary feature of note is the backdoor front
that has dipped southward from SE VA into NE NC. That front is
expected to move little during the rest of tonight.  For the rest of
this evening and tonight, given the upper short wave and it`s upper
support, the boundary that is stretched across the NE portion of our
CWA, and the ongoing high-PW airmass, additional showers/tstms will
remain possible until the short wave exits to our east. Should these
cells train over the same areas, flash flooding would be a
possibility, thus is our main concern for the near term period. The
rain should wind down and exit to our east after 07Z, thus our
forecast which indicates PoPs winding down from west to east after
later overnight.

Lows tonight from 68 to 73, warmest south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

*A stalled frontal zone will result in a lingering risk for isolated
flash flooding Monday afternoon and evening

Anomalously moist PWATs of 2-2.25" will remain in place as a sfc
boundary bisects the area.

Forcing for ascent will be limited, but a couple of weak upper
disturbances,  along with differential heating, weak low-level
convergence along the boundary, and convective outflows, will
initiate and sustain convection through the afternoon and
evening hours.

The primary threat remains localized flash flooding, especially in
areas with recent heavy rainfall. Urban areas and poor drainage
locations will be especially vulnerable.

Poor mid-level lapse rates and weak flow aloft will limit stronger
updrafts and convective organization. However, an isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower/mid 80s north, and
upper upper 80s/near 90 south, as morning stratus layer gradually
lifts and scours out.

Convection will wane during the late evening with widespread low
clouds likely to redeveloping overnight. Lows will range from upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Aloft, high pressure will sit off the Southeast US coast through
Thu. A northern stream s/w will track enewd across the Appalachians,
clipping the area as it traverses the periphery of the ridge late
Tue/Tue night. Another s/w will move across the nrn Plains and upr
MS Valley Tue/Wed. The trough will amplify along the Appalachians
Thu, then slide ewd across the region Thu night/Fri. The ridge will
build back across the Southeast in the wake of the trough on Sat,
then strengthen as it sits over the TN/Valley/cntl Appalachians on
Sun. At the surface, a persistent trough will sit over the area
through Thu/Thu night. A front will approach from the NW/north Thu
night/Fri, potentially moving into the area Fri/Sat.

Convection: Without a significant airmass change through Thu, expect
diurnally driven convection to continue, with highest chances and
potential for a few strong storms on Tue and Thu, associated with
the s/w passages aloft. The weather should be less convectively
active Fri-Sun, but iso to sct aft/eve showers/storms cannot be
completely ruled out.

Temperatures: It still looks like Wed and Thu should be the hottest
days, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. With the continued
high humidity, some locations (from the Triangle, to Fayetteville,
to Rocky Mount) could see max heat index values in the 99 to 103
range both days. Also concerning are the overnight lows, which in
those same areas may only drop into the mid 70s Tue night and Wed
night. While heat index values may be shy of Heat Advisory criteria
(105-109 degrees), the compound effects of prolonged heat and
humidity with little relief overnight could be problematic for some
mid-week. While there is still some uncertainty, if the front is
able to move into the area late-week, expect a noticeable drop in RH
and overnight low temperatures, with slightly lower highs expected
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 858 PM Sunday...

Through 00Z Tuesday:  The main concern through at least 06Z tonight
will be scattered showers/tstm and assoc reduced flt conditions.
Variable and brief gusty winds and IFR conditions will be possible
with the stronger storms.  After the storms diminish and move east
after 06Z, looks for a period of IFR stratus to develop at most if
not all of central NC TAF sites.  The cigs should begin to lift
after 13z tomorrow morning, but another round of showers/tstms are
possible during the afternoon hours which will likely affect flt
conditions across much of central NC.

Looking beyond 00z Tuesday: Scattered to numerous showers and
storms, focused through the evening hours, are expected again Mon
and Tue afternoon/evening. A period of sub-VFR cigs is possible
early Tue morning. The chance for precipitation and early-morning
low clouds will decrease from Wednesday through Friday as high
pressure builds aloft, but isolated to scattered showers/storms will
still be possible each day.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through
18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL/Badgett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...np
EQUIPMENT...RAH