644
FXUS62 KRAH 292101
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will build across and offshore the Middle
Atlantic this afternoon, then continue to extend southwestward into
VA and NC tonight and Sunday. A cold front will move across the
region Sunday night, followed by another area of cold high pressure
that will build briefly overhead Monday and offshore Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A strong 1035 mb sfc high centered over southeast VA will slide
offshore through tonight promoting light esely return flow. Dew
points will be slow to recover, as such expect dry and chilly
conditions to persist through this evening.

Aloft, a short-wave currently over Missouri/Kansas will eject east
across the Ohio Valley through Sunday afternoon.  Mid-level height
falls/upper forcing with this feature will maximize well north of
our area. Moisture initially with this system should be rather
limited (in the overnight through sunrise period). However, can`t
rule out some very light isentropic-driven rain over the
southern/western Piedmont near 12Z Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings across this area continue to depict a strong warm nose
aloft, with generally near to above freezing sfc temperatures during
the potential period of early morning precipitation. Median HREF
wetbulb temperatures are in the upper 20s in this vicinity, but
don`t think there will be enough moisture to 1) evaporatively cool
to those values and 2) overcome low-level dry layers to reach the
sfc. Overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A strong sfc low will eject through the Ohio Valley on Sunday
sending a cold front across central NC later Sunday night. Ahead of
the front, a plume of deeper Gulf moisture will advect into the Deep
South/southeast. While the deepest moisture will remain over the
Gulf states, and the strongest upper forcing will remain to our
north, enough forcing will be present to induce a thin line of light
rain across our area Sunday afternoon and evening.  However, QPF
amounts will be negligible, primarily trace to a few hundreds
(highest amounts across the NC/VA border). Any rain should exit east
of the area by ~06Z Monday.  CAD will likely develop which should
create a rather steep temperature gradient with generally mid to
upper 40s highs across the northwest/northern Piedmont to near mid
60s in the southern Coastal Plain.

Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s (NW) to around 40 (SE).
Depending on the pace of the Sunday night cold front, there could be
a brief period of dense across the Piedmont as drier air filters in
aloft ahead of the front. Otherwise, the front should sweep low-
level moisture out of our area by 12Z Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

Monday will feature a brief lull in precipitation chances as a ~1030
mb surface high builds down the Eastern Seaboard from Upstate NY and
New England. Temperatures will only reach the mid-40s to lower-50s
(7-12 degrees below normal) and dew points will be in the 20s.
However, this surface high will quickly move east to the Canadian
Maritimes on Monday night as a potent shortwave tracking from the
Southern Plains to the Middle MS Valley spawns a surface low over
the northern Gulf Coast along a stalled front. This low will deepen
as it tracks NE through the eastern Carolinas on Tuesday and looks
to provide a soaking rain to our region from Monday night into
Tuesday, which will be welcome as most of central NC is in D1
(Moderate Drought) conditions. While the system will be fast moving,
it will contain plenty of anomalous moisture (PW values around 200%
of normal) and dynamics. There is still some uncertainty on the low
track which will affect total amounts, as the 12z ECMWF and CMC
trended slightly farther east and drier while the 12z GFS is still
on the wet side of guidance. The official forecast totals have
slightly decreased from yesterday to around an inch, but WPC still
has much of central NC outside of the NW Piedmont in a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Given how dry
it has been lately and the fact that much of our area will be on the
cool/stable side of the low, the main threat would be nuisance and
urban and poor drainage type flooding.

Also watching potential for a brief period of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation over the NW Piedmont on Monday night. Based
on latest GFS and NAM forecast model soundings, a strong and
prominent warm layer aloft will preclude any chance of sleet or
snow, and it will be difficult to even get any freezing rain with
wet bulb temperatures near or just above freezing even at the onset.
Looking at the overall synoptic pattern, the high pressure system
will be centered to our NE by this point and the low according to
most guidance will be taking an unfavorable slightly inland track
over eastern NC. GFS and ECMWF ensemble members are similarly
unimpressed and have trended warmer with none now showing any
freezing rain at INT/GSO with the 12z runs. Monday night`s lows will
be in the mid-30s to lower-40s, and with widespread cloud cover and
WAA, temperatures will be near steady or even slowly rise. Tuesday`s
highs will range from lower-40s in the far northern Piedmont to
lower-to-mid-50s in the far SE. Rain chances will end from west to
east in the late afternoon and early evening as a cold front sweeps
through behind the departing low. Lows Tuesday night will be in the
upper-20s to mid-30s with clearing skies.

Dry weather will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday as chilly surface
high pressure builds in from the west. A second chilly high will
build down from the north on Friday before moving offshore. The next
wave will move across the Southeast US in the southwest flow aloft
sometime Friday/Saturday, potentially spawning a coastal low and
bringing additional precipitation. Details such as timing and amounts
are still uncertain at this time. Below-normal temperatures will
likely continue from Wednesday through Friday, with confidence
decreasing by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through early Sunday
morning. Weak warm advection/isentropic ascent will result in the
development of MVFR stratus across the western Piedmont around
daybreak Sunday along with a period of LLWS. There is also a chance
for some very light rain to develop after 12Z but confidence is too
low to introduce in the TAFs and any precip that develops should be
spotty in nature. In addition, any precip that develops should not
occur until after temperatures warm above freezing.

Outlook: A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, bringing a chance of showers and
associated sub-VFR restrictions. Marginal LLWS may also be possible
ahead of the cold frontal passage Sunday morning into the afternoon.
The cold front will stall south of the area Monday with dry VFR
conditions giving way to widespread rain/showers and sub-VFR
restrictions late Monday night and Tuesday as a series of weak sfc
lows/waves track through the SE US and up the Carolina Coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Leins