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078
FGUS53 KMSR 171551
RVFRDW

RIVER FORECAST
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1051 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

: THIS PRODUCT HAS PRELIMINARY DATA THAT MAY BE SUBJECT TO REVISION.
: REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WFO FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL RIVER FORECAST.
:
: NOTE...  This product includes observed precipitation, plus
:          forecast precipitation for the next 24 Hours.
:
:
: South Fork Crow River  Mayer MN - MAYM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=11.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=10.0 FT
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: The raw model simulation was modified based on the relationship
: between the modeled and observed flows during the spring
: 2023 flood event, as well as recent and historical model
: performance. This included cutting some surface runoff in
: the Mayer and Glencoe basins, and delaying the local and
: routed flows.
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: CREST FORECAST
.A MAYM5  0620 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFFX  16.0
:
.ER MAYM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  9.9/ 10.2/ 10.5/ 11.0
.ER  MAYM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   11.6/ 12.2/ 12.8/ 13.3/ 13.9/ 14.4/ 14.7/ 15.1
.E1   15.4/ 15.6/ 15.8/ 15.9/ 16.0/ 16.0/ 16.0/ 16.0
.E1   16.0/ 15.9/ 15.9/ 15.8/ 15.7/ 15.6/ 15.5/ 15.3
.E1   15.1/ 14.9/ 14.7/ 14.4/
:
:
: South Fork Crow River  Delano MN - DELM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=16.5 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=11.5 FT
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: See comments above about modifications to the raw model
: for the MAYM5 basin. These modifications consequently affect
: the Delano simulation, as it is downstream of Mayer.
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: CREST FORECAST
.A DELM5  0621 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFFX  19.5
:
.ER DELM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  14.5/ 14.3/ 14.6/ 14.8
.ER  DELM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   14.9/ 15.2/ 15.4/ 15.7/ 16.0/ 16.3/ 16.6/ 16.9
.E1   17.3/ 17.7/ 18.1/ 18.5/ 18.8/ 19.1/ 19.3/ 19.4
.E1   19.5/ 19.5/ 19.5/ 19.5/ 19.4/ 19.4/ 19.3/ 19.3
.E1   19.2/ 19.2/ 19.1/ 19.1/
:
:
: Crow River  Rockford MN - RKFM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=10.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=8.0 FT
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: See comments above about modifications to the raw model
: for the MAYM5 basin. These modifications consequently affect
: the Rockford simulation, as it is downstream of Mayer. Also,
: local flow was sped up for the event on the 16th, as the
: heaviest rain fell near the gage.
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: CREST FORECAST
.A RKFM5  0623 Z DH00/DC06171551/HGIFFX  13.5
:
.ER RKFM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  8.8/ 8.8/ 8.8/ 9.0
.ER  RKFM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   9.0/ 9.1/ 9.3/ 9.5/ 9.7/ 9.9/ 10.1/ 10.3
.E1   10.5/ 10.7/ 10.9/ 11.2/ 11.5/ 11.9/ 12.2/ 12.5
.E1   12.7/ 12.9/ 13.1/ 13.3/ 13.4/ 13.5/ 13.5/ 13.5
.E1   13.5/ 13.4/ 13.4/ 13.4/
:
:
: Mississippi River  Brooklyn Park Hwy 610 MN - ANKM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=12.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=8.0 FT
.ER ANKM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  7.7/ 7.7/ 7.5/ 7.6
.ER  ANKM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.7/ 7.8/ 7.8
.E1   7.9/ 8.0/ 8.1/ 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.3/ 8.4/ 8.4
.E1   8.5/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.8/ 8.8/ 8.9
.E1   8.9/ 8.9/ 8.9/ 8.9/
:
:
: Mississippi River  Minneapolis MN - MSPM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=16.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=14.0 FT
.ER MSPM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  8.8/ 8.7/ 8.6/ 8.7
.ER  MSPM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.8/ 8.9/ 8.9
.E1   9.0/ 9.1/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.4/ 9.5/ 9.6/ 9.7
.E1   9.7/ 9.8/ 9.9/ 9.9/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.1/ 10.1
.E1   10.1/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/
:
:
: Minnesota River  Savage MN - SAVM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=702.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=697.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A SAVM5  0624 Z DH12/DC06171551/HGIFFX  708.0
:
.ER SAVM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  701.2/ 701.1/ 701.0/ 701.0
.ER  SAVM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   701.0/ 701.0/ 701.1/ 701.2/ 701.3/ 701.5/ 701.7/ 701.9
.E1   702.1/ 702.4/ 702.7/ 703.1/ 703.4/ 703.8/ 704.2/ 704.6
.E1   705.0/ 705.4/ 705.8/ 706.1/ 706.4/ 706.7/ 707.0/ 707.3
.E1   707.5/ 707.7/ 707.8/ 708.0/
:
:
: Mississippi River  St. Paul MN - STPM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=14.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=10.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A STPM5  0624 Z DH06/DC06171551/HGIFFX  14.9
:
.ER STPM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  10.4/ 10.3/ 10.2/ 10.2
.ER  STPM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   10.3/ 10.3/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.5/ 10.6/ 10.7/ 10.8
.E1   11.0/ 11.2/ 11.4/ 11.6/ 11.8/ 12.0/ 12.3/ 12.6
.E1   12.9/ 13.2/ 13.4/ 13.7/ 14.0/ 14.2/ 14.4/ 14.6
.E1   14.7/ 14.8/ 14.9/ 14.9/
:
:
: Mississippi River  Hastings TW MN - HSTM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=15.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=13.0 FT
.ER HSTM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HTIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6
.ER  HSTM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HTIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   12.5/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.7/ 12.7/ 12.8
.E1   12.9/ 13.0/ 13.1/ 13.3/ 13.5/ 13.8/ 14.0/ 14.3
.E1   14.5/ 14.8/ 15.0/ 15.2/ 15.4/ 15.6/ 15.8/ 16.0
.E1   16.1/ 16.3/ 16.5/ 16.6/
:
:
: St. Croix River  Stillwater MN - STLM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=87.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=80.0 FT
.ER STLM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  82.9/ 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8
.ER  STLM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.8/ 82.9/ 83.0/ 83.1/ 83.2
.E1   83.3/ 83.4/ 83.6/ 83.7/ 83.9/ 84.0/ 84.2/ 84.4
.E1   84.6/ 84.7/ 84.9/ 85.0/ 85.1/ 85.2/ 85.3/ 85.4
.E1   85.5/ 85.6/ 85.7/ 85.7/
:
:
: Mississippi River  L/D 3 TW MN - RDWM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=680.5 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=679.5 FT
.ER RDWM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HTIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  676.9/ 676.8/ 676.8/ 676.8
.ER  RDWM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HTIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   676.8/ 676.7/ 676.7/ 676.7/ 676.7/ 676.7/ 676.8/ 676.8
.E1   676.9/ 677.0/ 677.0/ 677.1/ 677.3/ 677.4/ 677.5/ 677.7
.E1   677.8/ 678.0/ 678.1/ 678.3/ 678.5/ 678.6/ 678.8/ 678.9
.E1   679.1/ 679.2/ 679.3/ 679.4/
:
:
: Cannon River  Northfield MN - NRFM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=897.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=895.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A NRFM5  0619 Z DH06/DC06171551/HGIFFX  897.7
:
.ER NRFM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  894.8/ 895.2/ 895.6/ 895.6
.ER  NRFM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   895.9/ 896.3/ 896.7/ 897.2/ 897.5/ 897.6/ 897.7/ 897.7
.E1   897.6/ 897.5/ 897.3/ 897.1/ 896.9/ 896.6/ 896.4/ 896.1
.E1   895.9/ 895.7/ 895.5/ 895.3/ 895.2/ 895.0/ 894.9/ 894.8
.E1   894.7/ 894.6/ 894.5/ 894.4/
:
:
: Mississippi River  Red Wing MN - REDM5
: HSA=MPX   Flood Stage=14.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage=12.0 FT
.ER REDM5 0616 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5
.ER  REDM5 0617 Z DH18/DC06171551/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1   10.6/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.6/ 10.6/ 10.7
.E1   10.8/ 10.8/ 10.9/ 11.0/ 11.1/ 11.2/ 11.3/ 11.4
.E1   11.5/ 11.6/ 11.6/ 11.7/ 11.8/ 11.9/ 12.0/ 12.1
.E1   12.3/ 12.4/ 12.5/ 12.6/
:
:
:END

 NOTE...  This product includes observed precipitation, plus
          forecast precipitation for the next 24 Hours.

$$

 FCSTR EXT: 2532