Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
702 FXUS65 KREV 100932 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 232 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy to gusty winds through today with potential recreation, aviation, and localized fire weather impacts. * A cold front Saturday morning will bring cooler temperatures and low chances for light rain/mountain snow showers this weekend. * Another storm arrives early next week keeping the cold temperatures, but with better chances of rain and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... Breezy to windy conditions persist early this morning across much of the region as the first of a series of upper level lows that will be affecting us for the next seven days arrives today. Its associated cold front will push through the region tomorrow, Saturday. In the meantime, expect gusty south-southwest winds with gusts between 20-35 mph in valleys, wind prone locations to 35-45 mph, and Sierra crest 65-85 mph to persist today. Localized fire concerns continue for portions of Mono and Mineral county as minimum relative humidity increases 5-10% compared to yesterday, but remains below 15%. Other impacts associated to the winds will be to recreational activities in the lakes, mainly Tahoe and Pyramid as choppy waters lead to hazardous boating conditions. Also if you are driving in the NV Basin and Range, patchy blowing dust from playas and dry lake beds will reduce visibilities. Rain arrives to our area late this afternoon and early evening as the cold front starts to push through the area over portions of NE CA. It will move slowly as it reaches western NV early tomorrow morning. However, rainfall amounts are expected to be very light, generally below 0.05 inches in the Sierra, and very spotty in western NV. Many places may not see much, if any rain. Snow levels will drop to around 7-7.5 kft behind the front. So, snow will be restricted to the highest elevations of mountains with amounts below 0.5 inches. There is only a 10-20% chance of exceeding one inch of snow at the Sierra crest peaks. Precipitation chances drop quickly on Saturday evening, and as the skies clear the cold weather follows closely behind. Temperatures drop to below seasonal on Saturday afternoon behind the front, but of greater impact will be the morning low temperatures on Sunday morning. Low temps will be well below freezing across Sierra and NE CA. Meanwhile, temps in western NV will be generally flirting with freezing temperatures. The Reno- Sparks metro areas has only a 5% chance of seeing freezing temperatures, while Carson City, Lovelock, Fallon and Yerington have a 30-45%, and Susanville, Portola and Minden have a 80-100% chance of freezing on Sunday morning. Next week, the pattern becomes uncertain with the descend of another upper low descending along the main storm track from the PacNW. Model guidance has very drastic scenarios resulting in either significant amounts of rain/mountain snow in the Sierra, or low amounts of rain/snow. Latest ECMWF EFI is not showing an anomalous event through the week, but the Shift of Tails indicates some outlier members in the ensemble are not following that trend. Therefore, confidence is very low for the forecast next week. Anyway, watch out for an increase in winds on Monday-Tuesday with the approach of the low. While rain/snow may start late on Monday, but the details like amounts and more precise timing are uncertain. Stay tuned through the weekend for more details as we start receiving more high-resolution data. -HC && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions continue through Friday with increasing S-SW winds with gusts up to 35 kts this afternoon. MVFR conditions are likely near -RA due to lower clouds, mainly in the Sierra. Mountain obscurations will be a concern too after 03Z. Expect areas of LLWS and turbulence for all terminals today, and continuing over Sierra terminals through Saturday morning along the cold front. This cold front on early Saturday morning brings 10-30% chance for light and isolated showers for Tahoe and W.Nevada terminals. -Fuentes/HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002-004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ072. && $$