Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
828 FXUS65 KREV 170839 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 139 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical June temperatures and dry weather prevail through today, with moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday and Thursday. * Another round of even stronger winds return Thursday and Friday with more fire weather, recreation and aviation concerns. * Continued cool, dry pattern will continue through at least the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Ridging will return to the area today through early Thursday. Temperatures will trend up around 3-6 degrees today compared to Monday, with an additional 3-6 degrees of warming for Wednesday. By Wednesday, we`ll have widespread mid to upper 90s (a few areas near 100 degrees) in western NV, eastern Lassen County, and lower Mono County, with mostly 80s for the eastern Sierra communities. There will be much lighter winds today and for Wednesday, along with dry conditions. * A pattern change is still in store Thursday onward. Model ensembles are in good agreement in advertising a deep low pressure (fairly strong for mid-June) digging into the Great Basin by the weekend. First, a trough will initially move through the area on Thursday as the upper high shifts east and the aforementioned low drops into the PacNW. With tightening pressure and temperature gradients, strong W/SW winds will begin to materialize late Thursday morning. These gradients increase further as the main portion of the upper level low moves closer to the region on Friday. Widespread gusty winds of 40-50 mph (50-70 mph along the Sierra ridges) will be possible with another bout of fire weather concerns, recreation, and aviation impacts. Precipitation potential with this incoming trough is still low, with the majority of the moisture remaining across far northwest NV, northeast CA, and OR. Those areas will have around a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Temperatures may be cold enough to drop the snow levels a touch, so the Warner Mountains may see a touch of snow early Saturday. Compared to Wednesday, Saturday temperatures will be as much as 15-20 degrees cooler, and some 10-15 degrees below average. * Models and ensembles keep a weak trough pattern over the area through at least the start of next week. Temperatures remain around 5-10 degrees below average with continued dry conditions and much lighter winds. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * Lighter winds are expected for today and Wednesday, generally variable in the morning; then west 5-10kts with gusts to 15kts each afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail the next few days. * The next period of increased winds is likely for Thursday- Friday. This will likely result in mountain wave turbulence and LLWS for the eastern Sierra and western NV. -McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... * The next period of fire weather concerns will be Thursday into the weekend, with Friday showing the highest potential for strong wind gusts and low humidity. With widespread wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and ongoing dry conditions, there will be several hours of critical fire weather concerns for a large portion of western Nevada and the lower elevations of northeastern CA each afternoon and early evening. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$