151
FXUS65 KREV 022107
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
207 PM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry conditions are expected today with a slight chance
  for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Oregon border
  this afternoon.

* An increase in afternoon winds along with prevailing dry
  conditions will allow for elevated fire weather concerns on
  Sunday.

* Warmer conditions return next week with temperatures back to
  seasonal averages by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Other than some minor cumulus buildups in northern Washoe and
western Lassen counties, not much is going on weather-wise today.
Temperatures as of this writing are comfortable for August 2nd
and highs today will end up around 2-4 degrees below average. For
Sunday, models as well as high-resolution ensembles have a upper
trough passing through the northern portions of the CWA after
sunset to around midnight. Ahead of this trough, increasing
temperature and pressure gradients along with a 80 kt jet at
250 mb will lead to increasing west to southwest winds throughout
the eastern Sierra, western NV, and eastern Lassen County.
Widespread gusts upwards of 25-30 mph and up to 40 mph on ridges
are likely by the late afternoon through the late evening. As
such, this still looks to bring more wind-related impacts for
recreation and travel, and elevated fire weather concerns which
are highlighted in the Fire Weather section below. Blended model
guidance also shows another slight chance (10-15%) for isolated
showers and dry thunderstorms along the OR border in the
afternoon.

For much of the upcoming week, ensembles show high pressure
setting up over the southern Rockies with a long-wave trough axis
over the western US. Outside of a slight 10% chance of showers
along the OR border Monday afternoon, dry conditions will prevail.
As for temperatures, we`ll cool down 2-4 degrees on Monday due to
the aforementioned trough. Temperatures then gradually trend up
starting on Tuesday through next weekend. We`ll have typical early
August temperatures and the daily zephyr winds each afternoon.
-McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at TAF sites today, with typical
afternoon breezes producing gusts 20-25 kt today mainly until 04Z.
Dry conditions are expected today though there is a slight chance
(~10%) for an isolated shower or dry thunderstorm along the OR
border until 03Z.

Winds are forecast to increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak
cold front passage, with gusts of 25-30 kt at the main terminals.
Another slight chance (~10%) for precipitation is also in the
forecast during Sunday afternoon along the OR border.
-078/McKellar

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

For this weekend, thunderstorm chances are sparse and mainly limited
to the Surprise Valley and far northwest NV near the OR border. A
few dry strikes are possible each afternoon today and Sunday in
these areas, although some of the higher resolution guidance still
keeps the lightning threat to north of the OR border.

Increased west to southwest winds with gusts up to near 30-35 mph
are forecast on Sunday with minimum relative humidity down to
around 10-15%. The timing of the peak winds still might not line
up ideally with the lowest RH, with a weak cold front passing
Sunday night. Some locations in western NV could see 1-3 hours of
critical fire weather conditions. If any holdover lightning
ignitions from recent thunderstorm days are present, these
increased winds could lead to some fire spread in areas where
vegetation has either dried out sufficiently after recent
rainfall, or in areas where less rain occurred.
-078/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$