Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
821 FXUS65 KREV 021918 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1218 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather prevails through Sunday afternoon with areas of wildfire smoke today. * A weak low pressure system brings up to a 5% chance of rain for the Sierra and northeast California on Sunday evening into Monday morning. * Warm and above average temperatures prevail through next week, with slightly cooler temperatures possible by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... No big changes in the forecast with this package. Weather will continue to be generally fair with high clouds and warm temperatures. Afternoon highs today will be in the upper 80s to around 90F for lower valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for Sierra communities. Temperatures will climb a couple more degrees tomorrow. The high clouds are also leading to warm morning lows. These are about 10-20 degrees above normal with lows in the 50s for lower valleys and 40s at lake level. Smoke from the Dome Fire in central CA continues to affect the region today. However, the HRRR has the amount of smoke in the area reducing this afternoon and evening. However, we may see more smoke again tomorrow, but concentrations appear to be lighter and more dispersed. A weak shortwave trough will affect the region Sunday evening into Monday morning. It is a mostly dry system, but there is around a 5% chance for rain for the Sierra, Sierra Front and northeast CA. Winds may pick up a bit with gusts up to 25 mph in portions of NE CA with a 10-40% chance of exceeding 25 mph, and for Southern Mono/Mineral a 40-70% chance of exceeding 25 mph. There is also a slight cooling of 2-5 degrees Sunday and Monday associated with this system. The upper level ridge takes over again on Monday through Wednesday or Thursday next week, depending in which model solution you want to believe. The ensembles of the GFS have a more progressive pattern compared to the ECMWF. Regardless, it will be warm and dry. Towards the next weekend, the guidance is starting to show the approach of an upper level trough which could potentially have some rain chances. These chances are currently below 10%, but that will change over the next several days. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with high clouds prevail over the 24 hr period. Winds will be generally light and VRB, except for terrain-driven afternoon breezes up to 13-18 kts between 02/20Z-03/03Z. Haze from wildfire smoke may lead to slantwise VIS reductions through the afternoon. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$