399
FXUS65 KREV 281947
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1247 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A drying trend begins today with reduced coverage and intensity of
  thunderstorms through the weekend.

* Areas of smoke and haze may impact visibility and air quality in
  southern Mono and Mineral counties the next several days due to
  fires west of the crest.

* Thunderstorm chances make a comeback in the Sierra, Sierra Front,
  and northeast California for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Drier and warmer conditions prevail today as broad southwest flow
slowly works its way into the Sierra and western Nevada. Residual
moisture will be enough to promote some isolated showers and
thunderstorms, but albeit lesser in coverage and intensity than
previous days this week. The best instability and moisture coincide
over areas along and east of Highway 95. A handful of storms could
pop up west of those areas, particularly for Lassen County and in
Mono County along the high terrain, but the chances are 20% or less.
Similar chances arise for Friday in terms of the thunderstorms, but
increasing dry, southwest flow should really limit the storm/shower
potential.

Wildfires west of the Sierra, particularly the Garnet fire, are
producing smoke and haze across Mono and Mineral counties today.
Areas of smoke and haze will impact visibility and air quality
today, but as mixing improves HREF simulations show a bit of
clearing for the afternoon/evening before the smoke rides back in
overnight for Friday. The smoke production will also be affected by
the wildfire activity, so be sure to check airnow.gov frequently for
air quality conditions.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through next week, with
a marginal warming trend bringing daytime highs into the low 80s and
low 90s from Saturday onward. Overall, chances for thunderstorms and
showers will be taking a break for the weekend, but there are
signals for the potential to return as early as Monday. Ensemble
clusters show high pressure taking up residence over the Four
Corners region once again, resulting in a repeat appearance of
moist, southerly flow across the southwest. It`s a bit early to
pencil it in, but it won`t be a bad idea to keep an eye on weather
potential for next week if you have outdoor ventures in mind.

-Edan


&&

.AVIATION...

Plan on VFR conditions and light winds outside of areas with
thunderstorms and showers today.

Showers and thunderstorm chances are much lower today, but can`t
rule out a shower or storm late this afternoon and evening,
particularly for KMMH (10-20% chance between 21Z-00Z).

Otherwise, most thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain east of
western Nevada TAF sites, but there may be a few showers or cumulus
buildups for Tahoe sites and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV.

-Edan

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$