959
FXUS65 KREV 292058
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
158 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A few lingering showers and thunderstorms today, but reduced
  coverage and intensity of thunderstorms compared to earlier in
  the week.

* Areas of smoke and haze may locally impact visibility and air
  quality the next several days due to fires west of the crest.

* Thunderstorm chances return for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Lingering moisture and a weak shortwave lifting from southern NV
  through eastern NV is kicking off additional showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon. These storms are much less
  organized and weaker than the storms we dealt with earlier this
  week, but still can bring brief heavy rainfall within the storm
  core, along with lightning, and gusty/erratic winds. Greatest
  coverage is through northern and eastern Nevada (for more
  details check in with our friends to the east, NWS Elko), with
  only a 10-15% chance for other locations to be impacted.

* We are drier for the weekend, though do keep storm chances in
  place for Mono/Alpine Counties (10-15%), with a stray cell
  having a low potential (5% chance) to drift into the Tahoe Basin
  or Douglas/Southern Lyon Co. We`ll also see temperatures warm,
  but only to near normal for this time of the year.

* The region is also seeing impacts from wildfires burning across
  the west, but primarily the smoke is from the Garnet Fire, in the
  Sierra east of Fresno. Much of the lower level smoke and air
  quality impacts are being confined to along and west of the
  Sierra, with some drifting into portions of Mono Co. Haze is being
  observed aloft through other portions of CA/NV, but isn`t bringing
  air quality impacts. For the latest: fire.airnow.gov.

* High pressure expands across the region next week, with
  southerly flow bringing another push of moisture northward.
  Anomalies from blended guidance are indicating PWATs
  (precipitable water) values increasing to around 150% of normal
  toward the end of the week. The monsoonal surge we saw earlier
  this week had values 200-300% of normal, so this is
  significantly lower. The other feature to contend with is a
  compact low sitting off the northern CA coast Tuesday, which
  lifts northward the middle into the end of next week. Ensemble
  solutions are at odds with exactly how far inland this feature
  will progress. If it scoots along the coast, there will be
  lesser thunderstorm coverage than if it lifts northeast and
  further inland. At this point, cluster analysis shows a 15%
  chance we`ll see greater thunderstorm coverage from an easterly
  progression of this wave. In any event, be prepared for the
  return of showers and thunderstorms for much of next week, exact
  locations and details TBD.

* Everyone stay safe out there and enjoy this unofficial end of
  summer holiday weekend! -Dawn


&&

.AVIATION...

* Smoke filtering in from the Garnet Fire may bring periods of
  visibility reduction at KMMH, elsewhere in the eastern Sierra
  and into portions of western Nevada any restrictions will be
  primarily slantwise with haze aloft.

* Storms are firing off once again this afternoon, with the main
  focus northern and eastern Nevada, though isolated cells (10-15%
  chance) remain possible for much of the eastern Sierra, Tahoe
  Basin, and into portions of western Nevada as well. These will
  be pulse storms, with small cores and generally short-lived and
  weaker in nature.

* Drier conditions for the weekend, with a 10-15% chance for a stray
  storm to form in Mono/Mineral Counties. Storm chances expand once
  again next week. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$