Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
510 FXUS65 KREV 222034 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1234 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather with cold mornings persists through Thanksgiving Day. * However, there is a slight chance of showers Sunday night into Monday morning near the Oregon border, along with increased winds. * Winter storms are possible starting on Friday bringing valley rain, mountain snow and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Generally fair and benign weather along with dry conditions, cold mornings and valley inversions prevail over the next several days as an upper level ridge settles over the West Coast and East Pacific. Temperatures will be generally near seasonal, but trending slightly below average for western NV/Eastern Sierra, and slightly above average for the Central Sierra and NE CA through Tuesday. There will be two exceptions to the fair weather. The first one is tonight, when more patchy freezing fog is likely between Boca and Truckee. Freezing fog in this area is likely over the next few mornings. The other exception is on Sunday night into Monday, when a quick and weak shortwave trough passes trough the PacNW, bringing some isolated and light rain/snow showers near the Oregon border. Plus some breezy afternoon winds are likely ahead of this system but gusts should be up to 20-25 mph from the west/northwest, especially for the northern Sierra and NE CA. Wind gusts along ridge tops will exceed 55 mph Sunday night into Monday morning, too. By Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), the flow becomes zonal with the approach of the next storm system. Therefore, it will be another warm day with a cold morning, but winds may start to increase on Sierra ridges that afternoon. Furthermore, starting from this point the models start to diverge significantly bringing different scenarios for Friday and through the weekend. Most ensembles are hitting at nothing or minor amounts of rain and snow along with some breezes. However, a few ensembles are wetter with stronger winds through the weekend. We will keep an eye out and see how these systems develop over the next few days for the next weekend. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through the next 30 hours. The main exception will be at KTRK, where FZFG is likely between 09Z-19Z resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions. Winds will be generally light and VRB or from the E/NE AOB 10 kts. FL100 winds increase to 30 kts at FL100 after 21Z Sunday resulting in turbulence and LLWS along and east of the Sierra Nevada. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$