827
FXUS65 KREV 142039
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
139 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Gusty winds will result in critical fire weather conditions and
choppy lakes today, and possibly on Sunday. Steady cooling is
expected over the weekend, bringing temperatures back towards
seasonal averages. Below normal temperatures and a slight chance of
showers near the Oregon border is anticipated on Monday before slow
warming and dry conditions settle in for the rest of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Abundant sunshine and warm weather is well underway across the
Sierra and western Nevada per latest observations. West to southwest
winds will strengthen through the afternoon with gusts of 30-40 mph
expected across western Nevada. As such, choppy lake waters and
heightened fire weather concerns will serve as the primary weather
issues today (more details in the Fire Weather section below).

A well-timed reprieve from the heat is in store for Father`s Day
weekend as highs reach the 70s and 80s for Sierra locales and
western Nevada valleys, respectively. Each afternoon this weekend
will be breezy, but Sunday afternoon presents the best opportunity
for more impactful winds in regard to recreation and fire weather.
Southwest to west gusts will strengthen to 25-35 mph Sunday
afternoon into the early evening, owing to increasing 700mb flow
amid effective boundary layer mixing. As such, turbulent lake waters
and renewed fire weather concerns are possible for Father`s Day.

An upper shortwave will eject across the Pacific Northwest late
Sunday into Monday, dislodging a cold front that will advance
through the region on Monday. As a result, Monday will be the
coolest day of the next seven days with daytime highs in the 60s and
70s. A few light showers are possible near the Oregon border where
blended guidance has a 10-20% chance of rain on Monday. Mid-level
height rises will induce slow warming after Monday, bringing
temperatures back towards seasonal averages. Ensembles advertise
rather mundane weather next week characterized by mild temperatures
and dry conditions.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail today with gusty west winds
up to 30 kts through the afternoon for Sierra Front terminals. LLWS
and light to moderate turbulence are possible for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH
through 03-06Z as FL100 winds strengthen to 30-40 kts above light
surface winds.

-Salas

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning will go into effect this afternoon for portions
of western Nevada where gusty winds and low daytime humidity overlap
with receptive fine fuel beds.

Latest surface observations reveal many sites within the area of
concern are flirting with critical fire weather conditions with even
a few sites meeting Red Flag criteria as winds continue to increase.
Southwest to west winds of 15-25 mph with gusts upwards of 40 mph
and daytime humidity below 15% will support a 4-8 hour period of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening across
the northern Sierra Front into the Basin and Range where receptive
fine fuels reside. Winds are expected to wane around or just after
sunset, which will mitigate the threat somewhat, but critical fire
weather conditions will persist well into the evening until wind
gusts weaken in earnest. Furthermore, overnight recoveries this
weekend will be quite poor for the valley floors and mid-slopes of
western Nevada as humidity struggles to exceed 40% each night.

A very brief period of elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions may exist Saturday afternoon under typical breezy winds,
but strongest winds will be much weaker and less widespread compared
to today. It is worth mentioning that a cold frontal passage will
induce a wind shift from W to NW/N Saturday night, which may impact
any new or existing ignitions across western Nevada. Sunday
afternoon will feature the potential for a multi-hour period of
critical fire weather conditions once again for western Nevada as
winds strengthen.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ420.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>004.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-429.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ071-072.

&&

$$