631
FXUS65 KREV 190816
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
116 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Light winds with afternoon temperatures warming 5 or so degrees
  each day through Friday. Cannot rule out a stray storm or two
  late this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon near the
  Sierra.

* Temperatures peak this weekend with moderate heat risk.
  Afternoon temperatures will approach 100 degrees for hotter
  western NV valleys with daytime west to southwest breezes
  returning.

* A trough anchors over the Pacific Northwest next week, keeping
  it dry with breezy afternoon winds. Temperatures may cool a few
  degrees, but they will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday:

* A weak trough will meander slowly across the Sierra and Great
  Basin through Friday with temperatures warming each day. This
  morning`s temperatures were already 5-10 degrees warmer than 24
  hours prior. Near average highs today will warm to around 10
  degrees above normal by Friday. It will remain quite dry with
  limited RH recoveries, especially for mid slopes.

* The wind pattern is very light along and ahead of the trough
  which will allow for some instability to slowly build along the
  Sierra. For today, temperatures near average and PWATs rising to
  around 0.40" may bring just enough instability for a 5-10%
  chance of high-based showers/storms late this afternoon/early
  evening. By Thursday afternoon, additional heating and PWATs
  near 0.50" will result in a bit more CAPE (300-500 J/KG) and a
  better chance of seeing a few storms (10-20% chance).

This Weekend:

* Temperatures are expected to peak this weekend as the ridge
  builds northward into CA-NV, 500 MB heights rise to around 590
  DAM and 700 MB temperatures push 16-17C. Ensemble spreads are
  quite low, so confidence is high for another round of hot
  temperatures close to 15 degrees above average Sat-Sun when
  highs will approach 100 degrees across western NV and 85-90
  degrees in Sierra communities. This puts the HeatRisk back into
  the moderate category which is a level that impacts most
  individuals who are sensitive to the heat.

* Otherwise, things look capped and dry with storm potential very
  low despite the heat (5% or less). Late day zephyr breezes will
  return with gusts 20-30 mph from late afternoon into the
  evening.

Next Week:

Ensemble spread increases a bit as shortwaves moving eastward
through the PacNW and northern Rockies try to flatten the ridge.
With the ridge axis remaining south across the Desert Southwest
and northern Baja region, the most likely scenario is for a dry
westerly flow aloft to dominate with temperatures dropping back a
few degrees but remaining 5-10 degrees above average. Afternoon
and evening breezes would persist as well.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR and light winds will be the prevailing features through
Friday. The only caveat will be a 5-10% chance for showers/storms
along the Sierra late this afternoon (22-02Z) with a slightly
better 10-20% chance late Thursday afternoon. Any cells will be
high-based and capable of gusty outflow winds to 35-40 kts, but
easily circumnavigable while en-route.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$