962
FXUS65 KREV 112151
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
151 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and dry weather continues into Wednesday with increasing
  winds posing travel and recreation impacts Wednesday afternoon.

* A winter storm will bring strong winds, valley rain, and Sierra
  snow on Thursday, resulting in travel and recreation impacts.

* Periods of unsettled weather are possible late this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Persistent high pressure will maintain warm and dry weather through
much of Wednesday. Expect daytime highs to be in the 60s to low
70s until Thursday. High pressure finally begins to shift eastward
on Wednesday, allowing winds to become breezy in the afternoon
across the Sierra and far western Nevada. SW/W gusts will peak in
the 25-35 mph range with wind prone locales perhaps flirting with
gusts of 50 mph. Bumpy flights and choppy lakes are among the main
impacts, although a lower end fire weather threat will exist in
Mono County (more on this in the fire weather section). Winds
diminish somewhat during the nighttime hours, but likely stay
breezy through the evening.

The forecast for our upcoming winter storm is becoming a bit tricky
to reconcile as latest guidance advertises a later onset of
strongest winds, valley rain, and Sierra snow. This is attributed to
the parent upper low assuming a more westward trajectory as it digs
in the eastern Pacific over the next few days. This deviation does
have a few notable effects that complicates the forecast:

1) The western trend in the storm path will also translate to a
westward lag of an attendant cold front, delaying wind and snow
impacts until its arrival on Thursday. As of now, the main timeframe
for greatest wind and snow impacts favors the mid-morning to
afternoon hours Thursday.

2) The cold front may also be less progressive, perhaps slowing or
stalling as it reaches the Sierra. Should this occur, precipitation
totals will likely increase in parts of the Sierra -- wherever the
front slows/stalls -- but snow levels will trend higher as colder
air is slower to overspread the region. This would limit, to some
extent, total snowfall along mountain passes and across lower
elevation Sierra communities. The prospect of spillover rain in
western Nevada will also be reduced with a less progressive cold
front. Sierra passes south of Tahoe (i.e., Carson, Ebbetts, Sonora,
Tioga) are favored for heaviest snowfall and travel impacts Thursday
as odds of 6" or more of snowfall by Friday AM exceed 70%. Travel
disruptions are possible along Donner Pass or at lake level, but
lower snowfall totals may limit impacts.

3) Upper level winds will tend to have a more southerly component in
this case, which isn`t a favorable pattern for orographic ascent or
spillover precip across leeside communities. Winds may also be a bit
stronger in areas that respond to southerly winds such as the I-580
corridor.

With all that being said, there are a few key takeaways regardless
of the outcome. Be sure to get your traveling done before Thursday,
or be prepared for slick roads and slowdowns if you must travel.
Strong winds are also expected Thursday as most areas have a 40%
chance or greater of seeing gusts of 45+ mph, which will likely
result in aviation and recreation impacts, and difficult driving
conditions for high-profile vehicles. Showers likely linger into
Friday morning, but overall drier conditions are expected much of
Friday into Saturday. Periods of unsettled weather may return late
Saturday into early next week but timing/details are uncertain at
this point.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Periods of FZFG may reduce CIGS/VIS to IFR-LIFR conditions at KTRK
tonight, mainly in the 10Z t0 15Z timeframe. Otherwise, widespread
VFR conditions with light breezes persist today amid prevailing high
pressure.

SW FL100 winds increase to 30-40 kts after 06Z tonight, which may
result in LLWS and minor mountain wave turbulence impacts at KTRK-
TVL and perhaps KRNO-KCXP-KMEV early Wednesday morning. Surface
winds become breezy Wednesday afternoon with SW gusts of 25-30 kts
for all terminals. Winds aloft intensify in concert with a brief
weakening of surface winds Wednesday evening, renewing LLWS and
mountain wave turbulence concerns into Thursday morning.

-Salas

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty SW/W winds and low daytime humidity may yield a brief period
of elevated fire weather conditions across the lower elevations of
Mono County Wednesday afternoon, especially through the Chalfant
Valley. Winds remain elevated Wednesday night into Thursday, but
rising humidity in the evening should mitigate fire weather
concerns.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
     NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
     CAZ071-072.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
     CAZ073.

&&

$$