089
FXUS65 KREV 192154
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
154 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and cold conditions will prevail across the region today.

* Another storm will bring valley rain and mountain snow to the
  Sierra and western Nevada late tonight through Friday morning.

* Looking ahead to the week of Thanksgiving, the weather for
  traveling looks good the early part of the week. Simulations are
  then pointing toward a potential colder storm during the
  weekend after the holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quite calm conditions out there today as the fog and low stratus
continue to erode. Main theme today will be sunny skies and light
winds. This is all thanks to an upper level ridge that`s getting
compressed as it passes over today. A trough off the PacNW coast is
throwing this ridge out east and quickly moving onshore.

This next system will arrive in NE CA late tonight, with the leading
edge of the precip working its way south to Tahoe, then to Mono
County by Thursday morning. We`re seeing a bit of spillover into
western NV in the CAMs Thursday morning as well. Spillover will
shift from mostly north of I-80, to south of I-80 by Thursday
afternoon. Snow levels will start off around 5500-6500ft at the
start of the precip, then drop slightly to 5000-6000ft Thursday
night. Current snow probabilities have an 80% chance up to 2 inches
along the higher peaks above 6500ft in NE CA and western NV (20%
chance of 2+ inches), a 50-60% chance of 4+ inches along the crest
surrounding Lake Tahoe above 7000ft, and a 40-80% chance of 4+
inches along the crest in Mono and the Wassuk Range above 7000ft.
Lower valleys are expected to get 0.05-0.20" of rain, with the
higher amounts south of US-50. To add a little complexity to the
forecast, a north/northeast flow aloft and at the surface Thursday
afternoon-evening will trap cooler air against the eastern slopes of
the Sierra. This cooler air combined with the band of precip that
will form south of US-50 may act to lower snow levels slightly,
giving lower valleys like Yerington, Hawthorne, and Smith Valley
chances for a rain/snow mix by Thursday evening. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued above 6000 feet in Mono, southern Lyon
and Mineral counties Thursday morning to Friday morning due to
this latest development.

The storm finally moves out Friday morning with lingering snow
showers in southern Mono County. Friday through next week we`ll warm
up slightly and dry out. High pressure attempts to build in, but
models are showing a trough sneaking by to our north on Monday,
squishing the ridge a bit. We may see some precip chances Monday
afternoon near the OR border, though the probabilities remain low
(10-15%).

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry conditions, light winds, and decreased cloud cover are forecast
through the afternoon allowing for VFR conditions. Looking ahead to
tonight, an approaching weather system will cause cloud cover to
increase within the region. This system will bring snow chances to
the Sierra and NE CA while ridgetop winds gusting up to around 30-35
kts are in the forecast through Thursday morning. These
precipitation chances spread across the rest of the region going
through the night allowing for rain and snow that could lower flight
rules. The precipitation coverage looks to begin to taper off from
north to south beginning Thursday evening before vanishing
completely by midday Friday.

-Justin/078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM PST Friday
     NVZ001.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM PST Friday
     CAZ073.

&&

$$