295
FXUS65 KREV 291950
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1250 PM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and mild conditions with light winds continue through this
  afternoon.

* Chances of light rain and mountain snow return this evening
  through Friday for the Sierra.

* A storm system on Saturday and Sunday brings colder temperatures
  along with valley rain and impactful mountain snow above 7000
  ft.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies over
the region which expects to be the case through the rest of today.
The latest model guidance shows an upper low off the coast of WA
today moving south slowly along the coast today and Friday. The models
also show a shortwave disturbance traveling around this low later
today which then moves through our area tonight. This shortwave
feature will cause the dry conditions currently seen in the
region to end as light rain and mountain snow chances begin to
move into the Sierra this evening. The Tahoe Basin continues to
have a 10-20% chance of showers this evening that will increase
to around 15-40% overnight. Sierra portions south of US-50 see
around a 25-60% chance for showers with the higher end chances at
the Sierra crest. Spillover continues to look limited, but
portions of the Sierra Front will see 5-15% shower chances as
well. The shower chances continue through Friday before gradually
tapering off by Friday night. When looking at the NBM snowfall
probabilities, portions of the Sierra above 8000 ft now see a
20-50% chance of 3+ inches with a 70-100% chance of 1+ inches of
snow by Friday night. The latest QPF values show the higher
elevations of the Sierra having up to 0.25 inches of liquid.
Elevations below 6500 ft that see showers continue to see a trace
up to around 0.05 inches of liquid. Snow levels do look to stay
above 7000 ft tonight, but some snowflakes with showers in areas
around 7000 ft are possible.

Going through the weekend, models are continuing to show a wintry
weather system impacting the region on Saturday through Sunday
afternoon. Forecast guidance shows the aforementioned low opening
into a trough on Saturday and joining with another Pacific low as
it passes over our region Saturday night into Sunday. This setup
will bring around a 50-80% chance for valley rain and mountain
snow to the Sierra and Sierra Front on Friday afternoon. These
chances then increase to around 60-90% and spread into the NV
Basin and Range in the evening and continue into Sunday.
Precipitation chances begin to taper off Sunday afternoon and
completely leave the region by Sunday night as the system moves
farther east. Daytime high temperatures may reach to around 10-20
degrees below seasonal normals on Sunday with Sunday night lows
around or below freezing in W NV and in the mid-teens to low 20s
in Sierra communities.

When looking at the snow levels for this system, the Tahoe Basin
has snow levels dropping to between 6500-7500 ft on Saturday
evening before lowering to around 5750-6250 by Sunday morning.
Mono County snow levels are between 7500-8000 ft on Saturday
evening and then drop to between 6750-7500 ft by Sunday morning.
When looking at the NBM snowfall probability for the duration of
this system, Donner Pass has a 50% chance of 3+ inches of snow while
elevations of above 8000 ft in Mono County see a 30-45% chance
for 6+ inches of snow. The highest elevations of the Sierra do see
around a 15-25% chance for at 12+ inches of snow as well. Due to
this incoming impactful weather, a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for Saturday morning through Sunday morning for Tahoe
areas above 7000 ft and for elevations above 8000 ft in Mono
County (See the Advisory for more details including snowfall
amounts). Checking with CalTrans and NDOT (for Mt. Rose Highway)
for the latest road conditions is recommended as travel through
these areas will be hazardous. Other areas that see snowfall in
the Tahoe area and Mono County that are not in these elevation
based advisories may see between a trace to around 2 inches of
snow. While snow may mix in with rain in portions of the Sierra
Front, the NV Basin and Range mostly sees light to moderate rain
through the duration of the system, with a 10% chance for
thunderstorms on Saturday evening that could yield periods of
heavier rainfall. Please continue to watch for forecast updates as
there is still some uncertainty with this system as forecast
models still are not in the best agreement in their solutions to
this complex pattern.

By Monday, an upper ridge moves over the area, signaling drier
conditions with slightly milder temperatures at least through
Wednesday. Longer range guidance continues to hint at another
system moving into the area late week, but there isn`t too much
more to say about it at this time as models are in great
disagreement on details this far out. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expect to continue through at least 30/00Z
underneath a broken to overcast cloud deck over the region. While
KREV/KCXP/KMEV will still have VFR conditions beyond 30/00Z,
there is currently a 5-15% chance for isolated light rain showers
around these terminals between 30/06Z-31/00z. As for the Sierra
terminals, forecast guidance shows rain/mountain snow chances
beginning as early as 03/03Z at the Sierra crest. KTRK/KTVL/KMMH
will see around a 30-60% chance for showers going through the
night and into Friday, which may cause MVFR conditions. Little to
no snowfall accumulation is expected at the the Sierra terminals
as measurable snowfall is expected to stay in higher elevations of
the Sierra. With Sierra ridge winds increasing after 30/00Z,
periods of mountain wave turbulence and LLWS may be possible.

Increased rain and mountain snow shower chances are forecast over
the weekend within the region as an impactful storm system moves
through. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 7 AM PDT Sunday
     NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 7 AM PDT Sunday
     CAZ072-073.
&&

$$