660
FXUS65 KREV 182104
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
204 PM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and mild weather will prevail this weekend into next week
  with breezy winds Sunday afternoon.

* Showers are possible in eastern Sierra south of Tahoe on Tuesday
  into Wednesday. Otherwise, dry conditions persist into late next
  week.

* There is increasing potential for an atmospheric river storm to
  impact the region next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Sunny skies and light winds will be the theme again today across our
region. Temperatures will peak tomorrow in the mid 70`s across lower
valleys and mid 60`s in the Sierra before they start to fall back to
near average Monday through next week.

Tomorrow a dry cold front will pass through, leaving us with
increased winds throughout the afternoon. Gusts of 30-35 mph are
expected from Pyramid Lake northward to the OR/NV border, otherwise
up to 25-30 mph elsewhere. There is a 10-20% chance of rain near the
OR border in northern Washoe County and eastern Modoc County around
midday Sunday. Accumulations will be minimal with only up to 0.10"
expected along the Warner mountains with very little spilling over
into Surprise Valley.

After Sunday, high pressure moves in once again, keeping our area
mostly dry and sunny through Thursday. There may be an exception to
that on Tuesday and Wednesday when a cut-off low hovering off the CA
coast will pass just to our south. The low may spark a few showers
along the eastern Sierra in southern Mono County, although exact
details on that are still fairly uncertain. Temperatures next week
will be near average, around 70 across western NV and mid 60`s in
Sierra communities. However, this very pleasant fall weather
looks to be put on hold at the end of this upcoming week.

Strong signals remain for an impactful storm to affect our region
starting some time between Friday night and Saturday night. EC
and GFS ensembles are still consistently showing a multi-day
atmospheric river type of storm next weekend. GFS and EC IVT
plumes are showing a plume of moisture moving in around that
timeframe of the 24th-25th. Additionally, long range models and
ensembles unanimously show a fairly deep, cold trough across the
PacNW next weekend. All the boxes are slowly being checked for
this to be our first decent cold storm. Now, while it is tempting
to bite the bait that the models are giving us, we have to take
that data with a grain of salt. There is still a considerable
amount of uncertainty with this storm, considering the time of
year and it still being 7ish days out. We`ll monitor this storm as
time progresses, but just be aware of the potential for mountain
snow and valley rain if you have any outdoor plans or travel plans
next weekend, especially over Sierra passes.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light winds for all terminals today. Winds
increase tomorrow out of the west with gusts up to 25-30 kt
expected in the afternoon.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$