406
FXUS65 KREV 132025
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
125 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Critical fire weather conditions are expected through this
  evening for portions of northeast CA and western NV, along with
  wind impacts to travel and recreation.

* Breezy afternoon winds persist through much of the upcoming
  week, with potential for longer periods of gusty winds Monday
  and again late next week.

* Typical June temperatures and dry weather prevail through next
  week, but a warmup with moderate HeatRisk is possible next
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty winds will spread across much of the region this afternoon
and evening, as a dry shortwave brushes across Oregon with
enhanced mid-upper southwest flow. Lake Wind Advisories remain in
effect for most western NV lakes near and north of US-50, along
with Red Flag Warnings through late this evening (see Fire
Weather section for more details).

For the upcoming week, we`ll have a similar weather pattern with
a general southwest flow aloft for most days, with weak shortwave
passages producing periods of enhanced wind gusts. This weekend
isn`t looking very impressive for stronger gusts, but typical
afternoon breezes remain on the table with short periods of gusts
around 30 mph along the eastern Sierra and into far western NV.

Another trough passage on Monday with increasing mid-upper
southwest-west flow could be the next day when enhanced wind
gusts. Looking farther into next week, Tuesday looks to have the
lightest winds, then winds ramp up again by midweek. Some
longer range scenarios bring the possibility of a more widespread
gusty wind event late next week with a stronger upper low reaching
the west coast.

Dry conditions prevail through next week with this overall weather
pattern. A few simulations still keep a minimal 5-10% chance for
showers or lightning near the OR border Monday afternoon, but the
most recent trends have retreated this potential farther north.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above mid-June averages but
relatively comfortable for most outdoor activities (mid 80s-lower
90s for lower elevations, mid 70s-near 80 for Sierra communities)
with decent overnight cooling. Blended guidance still projects a
warmup of 4-8 degrees next Wednesday-Thursday but this appears to
be a short-lived event. A cooldown is becoming more likely by the
end of next week and beyond, especially if the more aggressive
trough/upper low scenario into the western US sets up. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty SW/W winds will develop this afternoon with surface gusts
reaching 25-35 kts periodically. Low-end impacts from LLWS and
mountain wave turbulence continue into early Saturday as FL100
flow of 30-40 kts lines up with decreasing surface winds.
Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the
upcoming weekend. More typical PM gusts of 20-25 kt are likely
this weekend, then winds could ramp up again for Monday with
increased aviation impacts. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through late this evening
for eastern Lassen County, Surprise Valley and much of western
NV where critical fire weather conditions are met for a 3-8 hour
period. Sustained SW/W winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph
line up with RH between 6-14% for many sites in the warning area.
Winds will subside late this evening, but poor nighttime
recoveries (40% or less) could result in active burning
overnight if any fires occur. Avoid activities that could spark a
fire during these dry and windy conditions.

Breezy winds will continue to overlap very low RH for shorter
periods each afternoon across western Nevada, maintaining
elevated to locally critical conditions through this weekend.
Overnight recoveries will remain poor in this time as RH struggles
to exceed 40% each night. Monday could be the next day where a
longer duration of enhanced wind gusts returns across the eastern
Sierra and western NV. We`re also keeping an eye on a potentially
more widespread and stronger wind event later next week after a
couple days of warmer daytime highs. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ458.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-423-429.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ003-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278.

&&

$$