857
FXUS65 KREV 022002
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1202 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A quick-moving low pressure system will bring gusty winds and
  increased chances for light rain/mountain snow showers on
  Tuesday.

* Dry and mild weather prevails after Tuesday with temperatures
  trending warmer through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today, an upper-level ridge is building over the region,
sandwiched between two troughs. This pattern will lead to dry
conditions and warmer daytime high temperatures. Nevada valleys
and Sierra communities are expected to see highs in the mid 50s,
roughly 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds will remain
light for most areas this afternoon and evening. Cloud coverage is
already starting to increase this afternoon across the region,
which will help moderate overnight cooling. Overnight lows will be
5-10 degrees warmer in the Sierra and western Nevada compared to
the previous night, generally in the mid 20s for the Sierra and
mid 30s for western Nevada valleys.

Tomorrow, a low pressure system will move across northern
California and into northern Nevada by tomorrow night. This system
will usher in gusty winds and a chance for light rain and
mountain snow showers. Latest model guidance such as the NAM (in
it`s last full day of operation today) shows Sierra ridgetop winds
increasing significantly, gusting 60-80 mph out of the south-
southwest. These strong winds may mix down into eastern Sierra
valleys and along the Sierra Front, with surface gusts up to 25-35
mph, potentially reaching 50 mph in wind-prone areas.

Precipitation chances will increase through the day on Tuesday.
Light showers will move into the Sierra and NE California around
11 AM-12 PM PST, reaching the Sierra Front by 3-4 PM, and the
Nevada Basin and Range by 5 PM, before exiting the region by 8-9
PM. PoP values range from 60-80% in NE California and the Tahoe
region, with lower chances (~20% or less) elsewhere. Accumulations
are expected to be light, generally a trace to 0.15 inches, with
higher amounts at the Sierra crest. The NBM shows a 50-60% chance
of 1+ inch of new snow at the Sierra crest from Tahoe southward
through Mono County, which could lead to minor travel impacts
along Sierra passes. Snow levels will generally be around
6000-7500 feet, increasing to the higher end in the afternoon.

Wednesday, the upper low will depart, and a flattened upper ridge
will begin to build over the region. This will result in a return
to dry conditions across the entire forecast area. Temperatures
will remain mild, with a slight warming trend beginning. Highs are
forecast to be in the low 50s in the Sierra and upper 50s in
western Nevada, warming to the low 60s in the Sierra and upper
60s in western Nevada valleys by Saturday. These dry conditions
and mild temperatures will continue through this weekend, with
light winds.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for most area TAF sites today. Relatively
light winds are expected with high cloud coverage increasing
through the day. This cloud cover, along with the potential for
stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface overnight, may
inhibit fog reformation near KTRK later tonight.

Increased winds and rain/mountain snow shower chances are expected
in the region on Tuesday, with Sierra ridgetops gusting up to around
60-70 kts causing potential mountain wave turbulence and LLWS
along and east of the Sierra. Timing of the precipitation will be
from 22Z-03Z tomorrow afternoon. Snow levels will be around
6000-7500 ft tomorrow, so snow accumulation for Sierra terminals
is unlikely.

-078/Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$