929
FXUS65 KREV 161913
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1213 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds today with areas of critical fire weather
  conditions and recreation concerns for area lakes.

* Typical June temperatures and dry weather prevail through
  Tuesday, with moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday and Thursday.

* Another round of even stronger winds return Thursday and Friday
  with more fire weather, recreation and aviation concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Primary concerns for today will be gusty winds (gusts 30-40 mph)
with low humidity contributing to critical fire weather conditions
and recreation impacts. A passing trough is kicking off these
winds across western Nevada and portions of the eastern Sierra
this afternoon into the evening, and will also pop up a few
showers and thunderstorms near the CA/NV/OR border. Thunderstorm
probabilities remain relatively low at 5-10% and shows the
majority of the storms in southern OR through this evening.

In the wake of the trough, Tuesday will be a relatively quiet day
with lighter winds and typical June temperatures. Wednesday and
Thursday a quick ridge arrives across the Sierra and western Nevada
bringing a boost up in the temperatures for a couple of days.
Blended guidance shows highs peaking in the mid-upper 90s for
western NV and NE CA valleys, while Sierra communities reach the mid
80s. We will be running around 10 degrees above average with
HeatRisk rising to moderate levels in lower elevations.

Following this quick heat snap we`re slated for another round of
stronger, gusty winds as the next trough approaches the region.
The trough will usher in strong winds, as well as a significant
cooldown (15-20 degree drop!) for the weekend. Widespread gusty
winds 40-50 mph will be possible with another bout of fire
weather concerns, recreation and aviation impacts. Precipitation
potential with this incoming trough is pretty barren with the
majority of the moisture across far NW CA and OR. A few showers
may reach as far south as Susanville (5-10%) on Saturday, but we
will be at a loss for any meaningful precipitation as this trough
swings through. This trough will be cold enough to drop the snow
levels a touch, so the Warner Mountains may see a touch of snow
early Saturday.

Plan on much cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with
highs ranging from the mid 70s-lower 80s for lower elevations and
60s for Sierra communities and areas near the OR border, which would
represent about a 20-25 degree drop from Wednesday-Thursday`s heat.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

Stronger winds return today with the passage of a dry cold front,
especially for western NV terminals southward to KMMH. Sustained
west/southwest winds 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts in the
late morning will turn slowly northwest during the day. Periods of
LLWS are likely through the early afternoon, with mountain wave
turbulence continuing through this evening. Much lighter winds are
expected for Tuesday, with the next period of increased winds likely
for Thursday-Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through at
least midweek. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect this afternoon and evening for
the Sierra Front of far western NV southward to northern Mono
County, and the Lahontan Basin. Poor humidity recoveries this
morning (mainly 20-30%) will already set the stage for several
hours of critical fire weather conditions, when winds increase to
southwest-west 15-25 mph with peak gusts 35-45 mph, while
afternoon humidity drops to the 5-13% range in the warned areas
(driest in western NV). Areas adjacent to the warning, especially
Pershing and southern Mono counties, could also see similar dry
and windy conditions. Fuel intel for those areas confirmed that
some areas of fine fuels are well below average, but for the most
part a lot of the mid to higher elevations are nearing peak green-
up, so the live fuel moisture would not support fire growth.

There remains a 5-10% chance for showers or thunderstorms in far
northeast CA-northwest NV between 3 and 7 PM today, which could
produce erratic wind gusts up to 35 mph and a few lightning
strikes.

Our next period to watch will be Thursday into the weekend, with
Friday showing the highest potential for strong wind gusts and low
humidity. With widespread wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and ongoing dry
conditions, there will be several hours of critical fire weather
concerns for a large portion of western Nevada and the lower
elevations of northeastern CA.

MJD/EKL

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421-429.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.

&&

$$