833
FXUS65 KREV 290938
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
238 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A drying trend continues today with reduced coverage and intensity
  of thunderstorms through the weekend.

* Areas of smoke and haze may impact visibility and air quality in
  southern Mono and Mineral counties the next several days due to
  fires west of the crest.

* Thunderstorm chances make a comeback in the Sierra, Sierra Front,
  and northeast California for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

For today, drier and slightly warmer conditions are in the forecast
along with the typical afternoon breezes. Daytime high temperatures
today will range between the middle 80s to around the 90 degree
mark in the western NV valleys while the Sierra communities will
see highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s range. Some of the CAMs
do show low chances (<10%) for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
in the afternoon and evening hours within the CWA though they do
look to be brief and mostly confined to Churchill, Pershing,
Mineral and Mono Counties. As clear skies are in the forecast
overnight, low temperatures cool down to the lower 50s to lower
60s range in Western NV with the higher elevations in the Sierra
having lows between the upper 30s and upper 40s.

With ongoing wildfires west of the Sierra, some portions of the CWA
may see some smoke and haze drifting into the CWA through the
weekend. The latest run of the HRRR shows smoke from the Garnet Fire
entering into portions of Mono and Mineral Counties once again
today. As this may affect air quality and reduce some visibility
at times, please continue to monitor airnow.gov for the latest
conditions especially if you have outdoor plans.

For Saturday and Sunday, model guidance shows an upper air ridge
building over the region allowing for the drier conditions to
continue along with the slight warming trend. While precipitation
chances stay low over the weekend, the latest NBM guidance shows
around a 10% chance for an afternoon shower in Northern Mono County
on Sunday. But going into the work week, forecast guidance shows
an upper low trough creeping towards the CWA with the
aforementioned ridge moving over the Four Corners region. Better
chances for precipitation are possible in the region (~15-25%)
during the afternoon hours of next week as a result following the
weekend break. When looking at the latest EFI forecast, the
Eastern Sierra portion of the region does show an increase in CAPE
values on Wednesday and Thursday which could signal some chances
for potential convection. Will keep an eye on this though there is
still quite some uncertainty this far out in the forecast. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected today at most area TAF sites with
typical afternoon zephyr winds. An exception to the expected VFR
conditions are seen at KTRK this morning with sub-IFR conditions as
patchy fog look to develop with the recent area rainfall.

There are some low chances (<10%) for a brief isolated shower or
thunderstorm near Churchill, Pershing, Mineral and Mono Counties
between 29/20Z-30/04Z, but not anticipating them to affect flight
restrictions at area terminals. Another concern looks to be
potential smoke filtering in from the Garnet Fire in CA as it may
lower visibility at times within the area especially around KMMH.

The drying pattern looks to continue through the weekend, but
increased shower and storm chances are forecast to return next
week. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$