831
FXUS65 KREV 161921
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1221 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds and minor impacts to fire, recreation, and air and
  ground travel expected through Thursday.

* Chances of rain and isolated thunderstorms increase this
  afternoon near the Oregon border, and linger through Thursday.

* Dry and warmer weather is favored Friday into the weekend. Rain,
  thunderstorms, and breezy winds may return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* An upper low pressure currently over northern CA will move
  through the area today through Friday. The primary impact of
  this weak system will be an increase in south/southwest winds
  during the afternoon and evening hours this afternoon and on
  Thursday. Gusts between 25 to 35 mph will be common in the Tahoe
  Basin and the greater Reno area south to Mono and Mineral
  counties. Locally stronger gusts of 40-45 mph are still possible
  in wind prone areas such as I-580 near Washoe Lake and US-395
  between Mono Lake and Mammoth this afternoon. Additionally,
  winds along the Sierra crest increase tonight through Thursday
  morning with gusts between 45-55 mph.

* Precipitation associated with this weak system is primarily in
  Lassen County, the Surprise Valley, and far northwest NV. Today
  we have a 10-20% chance for showers and isolated storms in these
  areas. Precipitation and storm chances increase to 20-30% for
  these same areas on Thursday. There are still a few model
  solutions showing a narrow band of rain with possibly embedded
  lightning developing from Lassen County into northern Washoe
  County early Thursday morning. Any rainfall amounts will be
  light.

* After this low exits the area on Friday, we`ll see a return of a
  ridge into the weekend. Temperatures will trend higher, reaching
  back to seasonal averages by the weekend with mid-70s to mid-80s
  for high temperatures. But, a dry frontal passage Friday will
  bring east to northeast winds along and west of the Sierra crest
  Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, this weekend is
  warn and dry. Long-term models and ensembles still show an
  increasing chance for rain next week. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* Surface winds increase this afternoon for all terminals, with
  S-SW gusts reaching 20-25 kts at KTRK-KTVL and 25-30 kts at
  KRNO-KCXP-KMEV. Winds are expected to shift to westerly at KRNO-
  KCXP-KMEV between 00-03Z this evening. Stronger SW gusts of
  30-35 kts are favored at KMMH this afternoon.

* S/SW FL100 winds increase to 35 kts after 03Z, increasing LLWS
  and mountain wave turbulence concerns in the Sierra. This will
  continue through around 16Z Thursday. Otherwise, we have mostly
  VFR conditions across the region.

-Salas/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$