369
FXUS65 KREV 242015
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
115 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* The warmth will continue through the week with temperatures 5-8
  degrees above normal and minor to moderate heat risk. Typical
  afternoon breezes today and Tuesday.

* 10-20% chance showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in Mono and
  Mineral Counties, with a 15-40% chance as far north as I-80
  Tuesday. A few showers may persist overnight tonight and Tuesday
  night.

* Dry and breezy Wednesday and Thursday with heightened fire
  weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* The eastern Sierra and northwestern Nevada is currently sandwiched
  between a trough off the PacNW coast and an expansive area of high
  pressure over the Desert Southwest. Typical summer warmth and
  afternoon breezes today and Tuesday, with localized critical fire
  weather conditions. Increasing moisture tonight into Tuesday will
  mitigate some of those concerns. Wind gusts should primarily be in
  the 20-30 mph range each day, outside of any thunderstorm activity.

* There is a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon into the early evening in southern Mono-Mineral
  Counties. Coverage will be spotty at best, but will increase
  into Tuesday. A quick surge of moisture arrives tonight into
  Tuesday night, pushing PWATs upwards of 0.7-1.0",
  climatologically high for the region at around the 95th
  percentile for the date. The trend for a more northward reach
  with the moisture has continued and latest ensemble members are
  now indicating the higher PWATs even into northeast CA. While
  the highest probabilities for thunderstorm activity are for
  areas near and south of I-80 on Tuesday, we`re seeing signs of
  showers with a 15% chance for a thunderstorm in any given
  location per the HREF into northeast CA. A few showers could
  continue tonight and Tuesday night with much more extensive
  cloud cover and higher humidity across the region. Storms have
  the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall in addition to
  gusty and erratic outflow winds, along with the lightning and
  new fire start concerns.

* This moisture is quickly scoured out Wednesday into Thursday as a
  trough and associated cold front shift through the region.
  Southwest winds will be gusty Wednesday, turning northwesterly
  behind the cold front on Thursday. 40-70% chance for wind gusts to
  exceed 35 mph on Wednesday, with the strongest winds focused into
  the west-central Nevada Basin and Range Thursday. The dry air and
  gusty winds will bring enhanced fire weather concerns with
  critical conditions likely. If there are any hold over fires from
  thunderstorm activity Tuesday, the dry and windy conditions could
  will exacerbate concerns. Please see the fire weather section
  below for additional details.

* Looking further out, additional passing dry troughs will keep
  thunderstorms at bay, with periods of enhanced winds and near to
  above normal temperatures potentially through the 4th of July.

-Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

* Widespread VFR conditions, outside of a 10-20% chance for
  thunderstorms 21-03z this afternoon and evening near and south
  of a KMMH-KHTH line. Storm chances increase and expand northward
  Tuesday with localized heavy rainfall obscuring terrain and
  gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 40 kts possible.
  All terminal sites from KSVE-KWMC south could be impacted by
  showers as early at 16z Tuesday and thunderstorms from 20z-05z.
  A 15-40% chance at any given location.

* Typical SW-W afternoon breezes through 02-04z this evening, and
  again Tuesday from 20z-03z. Stronger SW winds are expected
  Wednesday, with breezy NW winds Thursday. -Dawn


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* TODAY: Our region will stay mostly dry and warm for the rest of
  this afternoon. A few showers are possible across Mono & Mineral
  counties (20% chance). There`s a very low risk of lightning with
  these storms, however cannot rule out a strike or two in heavier
  showers. We`ll stay fairly breezy today out of the west with
  gusts reaching up to 25-30 mph. There will be poor recoveries
  overnight tonight across zones 458/423/429.

* TOMORROW: Mid-level moisture will be brought up from the south
  tonight into tomorrow. This will push PWATs up to almost 1.00"
  by tomorrow afternoon. Starting early Tuesday morning, some
  light showers will start popping up along Mono/Mineral counties.
  Shower coverage and intensity will increase northward as the
  afternoon goes on. There will be a greater chance for lightning
  tomorrow afternoon (20-30%) between 1 PM and 7 PM. Westerly
  winds Tuesday will be a little bit lighter than today, with
  gusts reaching only up to 20-25 mph.

* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: Overnight into Wednesday, the recoveries
  will be significantly better. However, there be much drier air
  being fed into the region, bringing RHs back down below 20% by
  mid-afternoon. We have just issued a Fire Weather Watch for
  Wednesday between 2 PM and 11 PM for northern zones
  270/278/458/423. The main concerns will be gusty winds and low
  humidity. The latest blended guidance has gusts reaching up to
  40 mph across those zones, with RHs as low as 12%. Elsewhere,
  winds won`t be as strong (20-25 mph) and humidities will be
  slightly higher (20-30%). Thursday onward, we stay in a dry and
  warm pattern through the weekend with our typical afternoon
  breezes.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening NVZ423-458.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening CAZ270-278.

&&

$$