928
FXUS65 KREV 160840
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
140 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Winds increase this afternoon with areas of critical fire
  weather conditions.

* Typical June temperatures and dry weather prevail through
  Tuesday, with moderate HeatRisk returning by Wednesday and
  Thursday.

* Stronger winds and cooler conditions return by the end of this
  week, with below average temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The main weather feature today will be an upper level trough
passage across the region, bringing increased winds and dry
conditions with impacts to recreation, travel and fire weather
(more details in Fire Weather section below). Gusts of 30-40 mph
are most likely across areas near and south of I-80 this afternoon
and evening, with stronger gusts around 45 mph for parts of the
eastern Sierra and into Mineral County and Sierra ridge gusts of
50+ mph. While this trough passage will be largely dry, a couple
stray showers or lightning strikes may occur in the northern
portion of Lassen County and near the OR border. This probability
remains low (around 5-10%) as a majority of the guidance favors
better chances for this activity staying north of the OR border.

After this trough passage, a weaker west flow will set up over
CA-NV on Tuesday as a high pressure ridge remains over northern
Mexico, resulting in lighter winds and a warm day with highs near
90 in lower elevations and 80 for Sierra valleys. This ridge then
amplifies slightly on Wednesday over the Great Basin producing a
quick warmup with highs peaking in the mid-upper 90s for western
NV and NE CA valleys, while Sierra communities reach the mid 80s.
This is around 10 degrees above average with HeatRisk rising to
moderate levels in lower elevations. Thursday also looks to have
similar heat, although the arrival of a stronger low pressure to
the west coast will bring a notably cooler change as we get to
next weekend.

While some variation remains among the ensemble guidance with the
evolution of this next system, the most likely scenario brings
the first wave through CA-NV on Thursday with winds kicking up,
then the deeper main low moves inland Friday-Saturday. The main
impacts will be from stronger winds especially on Friday as the
cold front moves into CA-NV, with probability for gusts exceeding
40 mph in the 60-90% range across most areas. Temperatures look
to drop sharply for the upcoming weekend, with highs ranging from
the mid 70s-lower 80s for lower elevations and 60s for Sierra
communities and areas near the OR border, which would represent
about a 20-25 degree drop from the midweek heat. Most areas likely
remain dry, but parts of northeast CA and far northwest NV may see
chances for rain showers by late Friday night and Saturday. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Stronger winds return today with the passage of a dry cold front,
especially for western NV terminals southward to KMMH. Sustained
west/southwest winds 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts in the
late morning will turn slowly northwest during the day. Periods of
LLWS are likely through late morning, with mountain wave
turbulence continuing through this evening. Much lighter winds
are expected for Tuesday, with the next period of increased winds
likely for Thursday-Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
through at least midweek. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect this afternoon and evening for
the Sierra Front of far western NV southward to northern Mono
County, and the Lahontan Basin. Poor humidity recoveries this
morning (mainly 20-30%) will already set the stage for several
hours of critical fire weather conditions when winds increase to
southwest-west 15-25 mph with peak gusts 35-45 mph, while
afternoon humidity drops to 5-13% range in the warning areas
(driest in western NV). Areas adjacent to the warning, especially
Pershing and southern Mono counties, could also see similar dry
and windy conditions, and may also be added today, depending on
the determined extent of sufficiently dry vegetation. For the
final few hours of the warning, winds will become more west to
northwest behind the trough passage.

There remains a 5-10% chance for showers or thunderstorms in far
northeast CA-northwest NV between 3 and 7 PM today, which could
produce erratic wind gusts up to 35 mph and a few lightning
strikes.

Our next period of concern starts on Thursday into next weekend,
with Friday appearing to be the day with the highest risk. A
stronger upper level system passing through brings gusty winds,
likely stronger than today. Those winds coupled with a long
stretch of very dry conditions will increase the fire weather
risk again. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ420-421-429.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM PDT Monday NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM PDT Monday CAZ073.

&&

$$