172
FXUS65 KREV 290916
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
116 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures cooling to near average for the remainder of the
  holiday weekend and early next week.

* Dry conditions will languish through the end of November. Only
  potential will be for a few light snow showers near the Oregon
  border and northwest NV Sunday morning.

* Another cold front brings colder temperatures, breezy winds, and
  light showers by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A couple of cold fronts will drop through the region over the next
week resulting in increased breezes, cooler temperatures, and very
low chances for precipitation.

Temperatures: We will see a slight cool down in response to a weak
cold front passing through on Sunday. Temperatures will dip to
seasonal averages on Sunday, then warm up a bit for Monday-Tuesday.
Another cold front will drop in on Wednesday with a more noticeable
drop in temperatures, but even then we will only be slightly below
typical temperatures for early December. Daytime highs in Nevada
valleys will be in the mid to upper 40s while the Sierra valleys
will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Winds: With the weak front on Sunday, plan on increased ridgetop
winds that may impact aviation and recreation in the backcountry
areas. North to northwest breezes pick up late this afternoon into
Sunday with gusts 40 to 60 mph. Peak gusts will be Saturday night
overnight into Sunday morning. Breezes will lessen Sunday evening
into Monday and also shift out of the northeast. Plan on another
bump up in the ridge winds by late Tuesday into Wednesday with
similar concerns and impacts to aviation and backcountry
recreation.

Precipitation: The dry streak continues through the end of November
with little to no potential for significant wetting rains or snow.
We`re looking at a meager 10-20% chance of a stray snow shower or
flurries near the OR border and northern/eastern Pershing County
Sunday morning. There may be better potential with the cold front
for Wednesday, but there are discrepancies in the storm track.
Blended guidance is holding at a 10-20% chance of snowfall exceeding
1" in the eastern Sierra/Tahoe basin for now. Cluster analysis
highlights a strong ridge anomaly extending over the Eastern Pacific
and the Pac NW, which may limit the westward extent of the cold
front in question. About half of the solutions show the front
tracking in favor of snow showers for portions of western NV, but
the other half of the solutions keep it well east into the Great
Basin. For the most part, there is no sign of a meaningful
precipitation event with the strong ridge blocking the Pacific storm
door.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions along with light breezes will persist through much of
today. There is less than a 20% chance of fog formation for KTRK as
mid to high level clouds stream across the Sierra and western Nevada
ahead of an incoming shortwave for tonight into Sunday.

Precipitation chances appear rather dire for the next several days,
but a couple of upper level shortwaves will initiate some stronger
winds aloft this afternoon into Sunday and again for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Plan on increased westerly FL100/ridge top winds with
gusts 35-50 kt around Sunday 03z through 21z with a shift to the NNE
Mon 09z through 18z. The increased winds may result in periods of
mountain wave turbulence east of the Sierra this afternoon and
overnight, and then transition west of the Sierra late Sunday into
Monday with the wind shift.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$