399
FNUS75 KREV 141936
FWSREV

Spot Forecast for PACK Incident...CAL FIRE
National Weather Service Reno NV
1136 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PST on November 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service in Reno.

.DISCUSSION...

* Steady rainfall is expected on Saturday with east-southeast
  gusts potentially up to around 20 mph possible in the afternoon.

* Rain looks to transition to snow over Saturday night. Estimated
  24-hr QPF amounts for Saturday range from 0.6-1 inch with 1-hr
  rainfall rates up to 0.1 inches possible between 1400-2100 PDT.

* There is a low chance (~5%) for potential flash flooding with
  additional rainfall in the general area that may increase to
  around 10-15% in burn scar areas.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain rain likely in the late
                    morning and early afternoon. Rain late in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........37 at forecast start...Max 46-49.
RH..................100% at forecast start...Min 73-76%.
20-Foot Winds.......Winds east at 2 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Upslope 3-7 mph becoming east
                    7-8 mph with gusts up to around 15-20 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain....40% increasing to 70% in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...5%.
Mixing Height.......2300-2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 10-15 mph increasing to around 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Ventilation.........Marginal to good.

TIME (PST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........98        98        95        92
Weather cov.....CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY    DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40        40        70        70
Chc of thdr (%).0         0         10        10
Temp............37        41        46        46
RH..............100       100       85        76
20 FT wind......E 2G5     E 6G10    E 8G15    E 8G17
Eye level wind..E 1G3     E 4G6     E 5G9     E 5G9
Mx ht msl (kft).2.4       2.5       2.9       2.8
Transport wind..E 10      E 15      E 20      E 20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17        32        49        54
Ventrate Cat....MRGL      FAIR      GOOD      GOOD

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Rain . Snow overnight.
Temperature.........Min 26-28.
RH..................Max 100%.
20-Foot Winds.......Downslope 2-6 mph.
Chc Wetting Rain....80% decreasing to 65% overnight.
Chance of thunder...5%.
Mixing Height.......2600-3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming light
                    overnight becoming southwest around 10 mph
                    after 3 am.
Ventilation.........Good to marginal.

TIME (PST)      4 PM      7 PM      10 PM     1 AM
Sky (%).........95        98        99        99
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN      RAIN      RNSN      RNSN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80        80        70        70
Chc of thdr (%).10        10        10        10
Temp............46        43        40        35
RH..............77        79        87        96
20 FT wind......E 6G15    E 3G10    SE 5G10   SW 5G10
Eye level wind..E 4G9     E 2G6     SE 3G6    SW 3G6
Mx ht msl (kft).2.7       2.9       3.0       2.9
Transport wind..E 20      E 10      SW 5      SW 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..43        29        18        26
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      FAIR      MRGL      FAIR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Snow in the morning, then chance of
                    snow early in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 43.
RH..................Min 64%.
20-Foot Winds.......Upslope 3-7 mph becoming southwest 7-10 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Chc Wetting Rain....60% decreasing to 15% in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0%.
Mixing Height.......2900-3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
Ventilation.........Marginal to fair.

TIME (PST)      4 AM      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM
Sky (%).........93        91        92        79
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....SNOW      SNOW      SNOW      RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60        60        20        20
Chc of thdr (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............31        28        37        42
RH..............99        99        85        65
20 FT wind......S 5G10    SW 6G10   SW 10G15  SW 10G20
Eye level wind..S 3G6     SW 4G6    SW 6G9    SW 6G12
Mx ht msl (kft).2.1       2.0       3.6       3.9
Transport wind..SW 10     SW 10     SW 10     SW 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17        14        32        39
Ventrate Cat....MRGL      MRGL      FAIR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Chyba
Requested by...Alex Giery FBAN
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2525948.0/REV
.DELDT 11/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alexander.giery@fire.ca.gov