038
FXUS65 KRIW 120729
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
129 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mainly dry start to the weekend today with temperatures
  remaining near to above normal for most.

- The next weather system approaches late tomorrow and tomorrow
  night the the next chance of showers, mainly East of the
  Divide.

- A gusty wind and low humidity may bring elevated to critical
  fire weather for Monday.

- We could enter a wetter pattern for later next week, although
  details on timing and placement of heaviest precipitation
  remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

It definitely felt more like autumn when I came into work this
evening. This was one of the first times I broke out my windbreaker
since last spring. An we do have a gusty breeze this evening
following the passage of a cold front. We still have a few light
showers out there this evening, but nothing heavy.

Today looks like a rain free day for a vast majority of the area as
much drier air passes in from the west, dropping precipitable water
values to under a half an inch for most locations. The one exception
will be across far southern Wyoming, mainly along and south of
Interstate 80, where a bit more moisture will linger. We could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm here, but the chance is less than
1 out of 7 and therefore the POPs will be largely silent. Most
locations should see a light to moderate wind today. Again, the
exception will be Sweetwater County, where a gusty breeze will
continue. And as for fire weather concerns, elevated will be likely
but humidity should remain above critical levels. Temperatures will
be cooler than yesterday, but still remain above normal for most.
Northern Wyoming will be a bit cooler though, with places like
Buffalo and Cody struggling to get above 70.

Moisture begins to increase tonight. Enough mid level moisture may
return later tonight for a few isolated showers in the western
mountains late tonight. The bulk of the moisture should hold off
until late in the day and especially after sunset. The culprits for
this will be a plume of monsoonal moisture moving in from the south,
impacting areas largely East of the Divide. At this same time and
upper level low will be moving northward from Idaho and into western
Montana, dragging a negatively tilted trough and cold front through
the area. Eastern portions of the area do have a marginal risk of
excessive rain for the night. And like any other cases this year
(and there have been an abnormally large number) there are some
factors for and against. For factors for, we will have deep
moisture, with precipitable water values approaching 175 percent of
normal. The trough and cold front will also add some extra lift. The
main factor against will be steering flow, which looks rather
strong. There is generally 30 knots at 700 millibars with up to 50
knots at 500 millibars. So, any showers and storms will be moving at
a decent pace. The main concern would be possibly training storms,
or in southwesterly upslope areas, like the southern end of the
Bighorn Range. The greatest chance would be largely along and east
of a Kaycee to Rock Springs line, with lessening chances further
north and west. And with the southwest flow ahead of the system,
it will be a warm end to the weekend with many locations below
6000 feet well into the 80s for high temperatures.

Most showers should clear the area by sunrise on Monday, replaced by
another cooler and drier airmass, with temperatures falling back
toward normal levels. Concerns on this day shift to fire weather
again. There will still be a decent height and pressure gradient
between ridging over the southern United States and the upper level
low moving into the Prairie Provinces. The result will be a gusty
wind across much of the area. And with very dry air moving into the
area, we will likely see at least elevated fire weather. The
southern two thirds of the area; especially East of Rock Springs and
Riverton, has at least a 1 out of 2 chance of relative humidity
falling under 15 percent. We may need some fire weather highlights
for this day, it is a bit too early to issue right now though.

Tuesday looks mainly dry at this point, although signs are pointing
to another shot of monsoonal moisture starting to move into southern
Wyoming for late Tuesday as another low moves toward the area. Most
of the moisture looks to hold off until Wednesday though. A
preponderance of the guidance takes this low more to the east
and closer to the Cowboy State, bringing a better chance of
showers for Wednesday and into Thursday and possibly into Friday
as well. Details of precipitation amounts and timing of the
heaviest precipitation remain in flux though as there are
different solutions in regards to the exact timing and placement
of the low. Nevertheless, we are looking at an increased chance
of showers for later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions expected for most over the next 24 hours. A cold
front has pushed southward east of the Continental Divide, and will
bring breezy northeast winds to many locations in the basins of
northern and central Wyoming. West of the Divide, westerly winds are
weakening, and will become light overnight. Expect breezy west winds
to redevelop Saturday afternoon, especially west of the Divide. Very
little cloud cover to mention for most sites, with COD and CPR being
exceptions. Both of theses sites could see brief scattered to broken
MVFR cloud decks due to nearby light rainfall this evening, which
had lead to a little moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere.
Any low clouds near these sites are expected to quickly dissipate
after sunrise.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...VandenBoogart