438
FXUS65 KRIW 072217
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
417 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers continue across far southern and western
  Wyoming through this evening.

- A larger system moves along the US/Canada border on Sunday,
  bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms for most of
  the state Sunday and Monday.

- Warmer conditions through the next week will continue to melt
  any remaining snowcaps on higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The early summer snowmelt season continues to bring higher
running rivers across the state. Warm temperatures will continue
to melt off snowpacks, as low above 9000 feet remain above 40
degrees. Ridging continues to dominate a large portion of the
western US, but enough weak impulses will bring showers and a
few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, mainly along the higher
elevations. Some jet lift may bring a few stronger thunderstorms
this afternoon across Southwest Wyoming. The inverted-V sounding
notes the main threat in these storms would be some gusty winds
tapping the jet streak aloft.

Models have come together on the next weather system moving in
off the NW Pacific Coast Sunday into Monday. Lifting ahead of
this trough, along with daytime heating and ample moisture (PW
near 1.00") will bring some good rainfall to most of the state,
focusing on NW WY. Right now, best timing would be Sunday night,
before spreading east on Monday. SPC already has western WY in
a marginal risk for severe on Sunday, with decent shear and
lapse rates indicating both a wind and hail threat with stronger
storms.

Beyond this, models indicate the ridge building back northward
for most of next week, with temperatures again warming, and the
ridge suppressing most convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire period at all
terminals. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through 04Z, with KJAC seeing the best chances (30%) for
these showers and storms. Other showers and storms are possible
across the west and southwest, with most of these being virga
showers. A few gusty outflows are possible, however. Any lingering
gusty winds will return to light and variable or light drainage
flows after 05Z. Cloud cover will increase Saturday morning for most
terminals with several terminals seeing BKN high clouds 12Z Saturday
ahead of a weak shortwave that will bring better shower chances by
later Saturday afternoon and evening. Not enough confidence to
include shower or thunderstorms into the TAFs for Saturday afternoon
at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Another day of temperatures averaging 10 degrees above normal will
continue high elevation snowmelt will continue the trend of rising
rivers and minor flooding. We will continue the Flood
Advisories for Medicine Lodge Creek, Ten Sleep Creek and the
Popo Agie Rivers. Larger main stream rivers, especially the Wind
and Little Wind Rivers, are seeing rises and will have to be
monitored for possible rises today and into the weekend.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Hensley
HYDROLOGY...Hattings