417
FXUS65 KRIW 111859
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1159 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mild and dry Veterans Day with plenty of sunshine across
  the Cowboy State today.

- Warm temperatures with values 10 to 20 degrees above normal
  persist through the week with daily record highs possibly in
  jeopardy.

- Unsettled weather possibly returning for the end of the week
  into the weekend, especially over western WY.

- Active weather pattern looks to potentially develop for next
  week with more seasonable temperatures and increased
  precipitation chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

A pleasant Veterans Day is in store for the Cowboy State today.
Skies will be mostly to partly sunny with mild temperatures.
Not much has changed in regards to the previous discussion. Warm
and mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail across the
Cowboy State over the next few days. Highs will be warm with
many locations seeing temperatures in the 50s to 60s through
Friday. These values are nearly 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
As a result some record highs may be in jeopardy, especially on
Thursday which seems to be the warmest day of the week. There
still remains the potential for a disturbance to move through
the region for Friday. However, at this time, confidence in
terms of impacts and timing remains low. Overall, a gradual
transition into more active and unsettled weather pattern looks
to be on the horizon for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge across much of the
western United States with ample upper level moisture spilling
over it across the CWA as depicted on IR. Partly cloudy to
mainly clear skies for much of the area due to this cloud cover
over the ridge from the Pacific moisture around it. Northwest
flow aloft will continue for Tuesday with the main finger of the
PFJ retreating some to the north and northeast. As such, any
subtle waves down the aforementioned ridge will remain to the
northeast with dry conditions expected. As such, temperatures
will remain on the uptick seeing 5 to 15 degrees warmer than
average through Thursday.

A more zonal pattern out of the west come Wednesday and
Thursday as a deep GOA low pushes south off the Pacific
northwest coast. This will push in the Pacific moisture ahead of
the next system come Friday and over the weekend. Southwest
flow late Thursday into Friday as the L/W trough deepens to the
west with increasing divergence aloft. Precipitation chances
increase as such with western mountain snow and some possible
valley rain, all dependent on temperatures and timing of cold
frontal passage Friday. Timing will be the main affect on the
system, as HREF models indicate quite a bit of low confidence
and consistency with it. As such, snow accumulations are up and
down with each model run making the NBM not have consistent
outputs. Regardless, this has trended to a west of the Divide
system not seeing much of an impact to the east outside of
falling temperatures and some windier conditions. Eastern
Sweetwater to Casper, with some snow for Casper Mountain
possible dependent on how far south and strong the
aforementioned trough deepens. Stay tuned for updated forecasts
in the coming days.

Beyond the weekend for the long term forecast, expect a more
active pattern to be had going into next week. Trough-ridge
couplets are depicted in many of the longer term models with
temperatures back to more seasonable with a wetter pattern for
much of next week starting the second half of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1015 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR Conditions continue to prevail through the next 24 hours. Mostly
clear skies will persist through the first part of the period, with
BKN to OVC high cirrus decks pushing in from the west by around
sunset this evening. Skies will then remain mostly cloudy with BKN
decks between FL150 and FL200 through the rest of the period. Winds
remain mostly light through the period. There will be some breezes
at KCPR, KCOD, KRIW, and across the southwest WY terminals (KBPI,
KPNA, and KRKS) during the first part of the period, but these will
quickly diminish towards sunset, with gusts around 20kts holding on
in typical northwest drainage flows at KRIW through much of the
night. Once winds fully diminish, nocturnal inversions will set up
and winds will remain light at variable at all sites through the
remainder of the period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dziewaltowski
DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Hensley