Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
683 FXUS61 KRLX 071001 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 601 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast update. Severe weather potential continues to wane, but slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will move down from our north through today creating the potential for localized flash flooding. Excessive rainfall possible through the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slow-moving and training showers and thunderstorms wane in severity, but could lead to instances of localized flash flooding today. 2) Excessive rainfall remains possible through the week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms and above normal temperatures continuing into the new week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Stalled front to our north will continue to pump showers and isolated thunderstorms across our forecast area through the morning. These showers and storms will be most prominent across our northern tier lowland and mountain counties of West Virginia and Ohio. Latest model guidance has rainfall totals of up to half an inch through the morning across our northern tier counties. That said, there is a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall across these areas until at least 8 AM. Localized instances will be possible this morning as a result. Showers and thunderstorms shift south through the day today as the front to our north moves south. The Metro Area will see chances for activity by early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity looks isolated at this time and severe weather is not anticipated. Heavy rainfall is expected with slow moving, training showers and storms tapping into precipitable water values between 1.00" and 1.75". Some localized flash flooding may be possible. There is a marginal risk (level 1/4) across the middle of the forecast area later today. KEY MESSAGE 2... An active and more summerlike pattern continues through the week with the aforementioned front hanging around the area. Precipitable water amounts will remain between 1.00" and 2.00" with an average between 1.25" and 1.75" for many locations. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the week leading to excessive rainfall risks somewhere in our forecast area each day. Localized flash flooding may be a possible concern later this week after multiple days of moderate to heavy showers. Currently, any thunderstorm activity the next few days looks to be sub-severe or garden variety. Temperatures will remain above normal and very warm with mid to upper 80s and even lower 90s being common afternoon highs across the lowlands through at least Friday. Humidity will gradually build through the week as dew points reach oppressive levels in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mixed flight conditions are expected today, VFR for most, but MVFR ceilings will likely form across the northeastern mountains and foothills of WV this morning. This includes the sites of CKB and EKN. Following a brief lull this morning, showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift southward later this morning into the afternoon. IFR conditions are expected in and around any showers and storms, but severe weather is not anticipated. Dense valley fog is expected to form tonight at all sites provided skies can clear out. SW`rly winds will be light to calm this morning with a more N`rly shift anticipated by late afternoon depending on the location of a stationary front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, intensity, and location of showers and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/07/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H M H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR conditions expected with morning valley fog Monday and Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC