Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
013 FXUS61 KRLX 032320 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 620 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z aviation discussion update No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front crosses Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain, some heavy at times, arrives west to east Wednesday morning through Wednesday night with the front. 2) Cooler temperatures in store this weekend with frost/freeze conditions looking probable. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will march through our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A soaking stratiform rain is close to definite for the forecast area as precipitation onset arrives from west to east starting Wednesday morning and lasting into Thursday morning. Rain could be moderate to heavy at time, especially in the afternoon and evening. Isolated rumbles of thunder are also possible with forcing from the front, but scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity remains very low. Flooding concerns remain very low after several dry days. Any very localized flooding that does occur would likely be the result of drains being stopped up from leaf litter. A large chunk of the forecast area, namely our Ohio, Kentucky, central and western West Virginia counties will likely be in the range of 0.50" and 1.00" of rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cooler temperature trends arrive this weekend behind the front. The lowlands will average temperatures in the mid 50s to the low 60s Saturday through Monday. The mountains will remain in the mid 40s to 50s. Overnight lows are projected to dip down into the 30s to lower 40s each night. This will lead to frost and freeze concerns which could require product issuance across our active growing season counties in southern and central West Virginia, Kentucky, and southwest Virginia, especially Sunday and Monday mornings. Drier weather for most is anticipated this weekend, however chances for upslope rain showers will exist through the weekend across the mountains with the post-frontal, northwesterly flow. Area wide chances for showers are expected Sunday night and Monday, with the chance for some flakes across the higher ridges of the northeastern mountains of West Virginia. Temperatures will not be quite cold enough to warrant accumulations. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions through at least 19Z, when ceilings and visibilities will lower as rain moves into the area, with local MVFR conditions developing after 19Z, and areas of MVFR developing after 22Z. Expect generally light surface winds through at least 09Z, when winds will gradually start to increase and become gusty, with gusts generally in the teens to 20 kts across the lowlands, and 20 to 30 kt range across the mountains. In addition, a period of LLWS is anticipated at several TAF sites tonight, generally 08-16Z, and have coded this into most likely affected TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated MVFR restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EST 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Areas of IFR conditions may be possible in precipitation and low ceilings Wednesday night and Thursday, particularly across the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...SL