461
FXUS61 KRLX 171852
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy downpours and flood potential continue today with another
disturbance crossing the area. Strong cold front increases the
severe potential for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Flood Watch in effect through this evening.
* Isolated storms could produce damaging winds this afternoon
  or evening.

Mainly isolated showers and a few storms have developed
throughout the past few hours across the region, but fortunately
they have been moving faster than recent days, so no hydro
issues as of yet. Shower and storm activity is expected to
blossom as we go through the afternoon and into the evening, so
increased coverage could lead to a greater risk of training
storms, and more intense rainfall is likely, as well. It`s hard
right now to pinpoint any one area for flooding potential, as
activity may not be focused in any one area, and it likely will
be conditional on if some areas can get training or hit multiple
times. Additionally, WPC and much of the guidance did bump down
the QPF somewhat over the area, so it`s possible we may largely
miss out on flooding this time around.

A marginal risk of severe weather has been highlighted for
portions of northeastern West Virginia, where isolated storms
could produce locally damaging winds. However, it will be mainly
be a concern if storms can get enough vertical growth, or if we
can get some clustering of storms to occur. Otherwise, shear is
paltry, so it will be hard to get much in the way of
organization or sustained activity.

Beyond the flooding concerns, it will remain warm and humid
through tomorrow. Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s will
keep overnight lows very mild tonight, and SW`ly winds and some
patchy sunshine tomorrow will push highs into the mid-80s for
most of the lowlands, and into the 70s for the mountains. Heat
index values are forecast to peak in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather pattern, with a warm and humid air mass in place,
continues in the short term period.  Wednesday evening into
Thursday, an upper trough, will push east through the area, with the
frontal boundary that has been located to our north and west,
finally sweeping through the area. Severe weather may be possible
during this period, and spc already has parts of the area
highlighted for Wednesday night and Thursday, with a damaging wind
threat looking to be most likely. Models tend to differ a bit with
the timing of the frontal passage, and a slower timing to the
front/more into the afternoon hours would likely result in a greater
threat for severe on Thursday afternoon than is currently
highlighted. For now, SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk,
with the slight risk located to our east Thursday, with a marginal
risk Wednesday night from any lingering convection that develops to
our west on Wednesday evening and makes its way eastward into our
area. Damaging winds are the primary hazard.

Overall drier weather is expected later Thursday and Friday behind
the departing system, however, occasional light showers cannot be
completely ruled out as additional weak shortwaves cross the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Mainly dry and increasingly hot this weekend into early next week
with a building upper ridge across the eastern U.S. By early next
week, daytime high temperatures should reach the mid 90s across much
of the lowlands. This combined with dew points in the 70s, will
result in heat indices likely hitting advisory criteria Sunday
through Tuesday. An isolated shower or storm is possible during the
afternoons during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions with a SCT025 deck that occasionally goes
BKN for MVFR conditions will continue initially as shower and
thunderstorm activity slowly ramps up around the CWA. Any broken
or overcast skies during shower and thunderstorm activity at a
site looks to be mainly in the 020-030 AGL range, but could see
some areas a bit lower or higher. Visibility in heavier showers
and storms could flirt with the IFR threshold, but most precip
will likely be light to moderate and not impact visibility as
much.

SW`ly winds are gusty across much of the area, gusting up to
15kts or so at times, but outside of any t-storm gusts, that
should calm down somewhat overnight for most of the area. The
ample low-level moisture will allow for some areas of mist and
perhaps a bit denser mist or fog in some valleys tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms and
resultant impacts on CIGs/VSBY may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy fog or low stratus Wednesday and
Friday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK