740
FXUS61 KRLX 261656
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1256 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

Latest thoughts on Mon/Tue potential severe weather in Key
Message 1.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cluster of severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday night
into Tuesday. Damaging winds and flash flooding appear to be the
main concerns with a bowing line of thunderstorms.

2) Beyond Tuesday, quieter weather should settle in for the rest of
the week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

In previous forecasts, we mentioned the potential for a cluster of
thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday morning. In recent
runs, high- resolution forecast guidance has backed off on this
idea for our local forecast area.

Instability will build Monday afternoon, particularly across
southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia, with 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg
of CAPE expected during that timeframe. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon across these areas as
rounds of vorticity flow northwest to southeast from the Great Lakes.

Models have been consistently showing the potential for a
thunderstorm complex to impact the area Monday night into Tuesday,
but they are still having a difficult time agreeing on a consistent
track and location.

The best potential for thunderstorms will occur in the early morning
hours of Tuesday, ahead of a few robust vort. maxes and an
advancing cold front. High- resolution mesoscale models are
continuing to show the potential for a bowing cluster of
thunderstorms approaching from the Great Lakes during this time.
The synoptic pattern will feature a strong 250-mb jet streak
aligning northwest to southeast from Wisconsin to northern Ohio,
placing the middle and upper Ohio Valley region in the
favorable exit region for upward motion. In addition, robust
500-mb vorticity will approach from the Great Lakes. 0-6km shear
will be robust at 45-50 kts, and some models still show a
fairly high amount of instability during the predawn hours of
Tuesday (1,000 to 1,500 J/kg from northeast KY through northern
WV). A low-level jet will advect 65 to 70 degree dew points into
the region, and precipitable water values will range from 2.00
to 2.25 inches.

The atmospheric setup early Tuesday morning does not look favorable
for catastrophic flooding like what was seen last week because
storms should be moving at a fairly quick pace. However, localized
flash flooding will certainly be a concern, especially in areas that
were recently hit hard with flooding last week.

Depending on how quickly storms exit Tuesday morning, there may be
an opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize again Tuesday
afternoon before the main cold front approaches between 18Z Tuesday
and 00Z Wednesday. This is highly uncertain at this time, but
another round of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon is not out of the
question.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Wednesday through Friday should be fairly quiet as ridging brings
dry weather. However, chances of showers and thunderstorms will
return next weekend as another mid-level disturbance approaches.
Temperatures will range from the middle to upper 70s in the
mountains and the middle to upper 80s in the lowlands from Wednesday
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Ceilings are balancing between borderline MVFR and VFR for many
sites this afternoon between 2,500 and 3,500 feet. This will
continue the rest of the day. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
and impact the sites this afternoon and evening with reduced
visibility. PROB30 groups have been included in the 18Z TAF
packages.

MVFR ceilings are expected overnight, along with some IFR fog at
CKB and EKN. Conditions should improve after 14Z Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may develop in more sites than expected
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog/low stratus
Monday morning, and also with showers and thunderstorms late
Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26