664
FXUS61 KRLX 200004
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
804 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
802 PM Update...
~00z Aviation Forecast Discussion

312 PM Update...
Chances of strong storms and locally heavy rain return to the area
this evening and then persist into mid week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled through mid week, with daily chances of locally heavy
downpours and a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper-level trough and low, currently located over southern
Idaho, is projected to track east into the central Plains this
weekend into early next week. As it approaches, a weak ridge of high
pressure will retreat south, permitting a series of disturbances to
traverse the Middle Ohio Valley (MOV) and Central Appalachians, amid
otherwise zonal flow. Meanwhile, a front lifts into the area on
SUnday and the lingers nearby through the first part of the work
week.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase this
evening and persist into the work week, with most substantial
activity occurring in the vicinity of the front, and in conjunction
with the passing disturbances. Heavy downpours and training storms
will be capable of depositing a couple inches of rain in a fairly
short amount of time. Thus, the primary concern during this time
will be a heightened risk of flash flooding. A few strong to severe
storms could also be capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

From mid to late week, the pattern remains unsettled as the upper
trough progresses into the MOV and then slowly spirals towards the
east coast. Additional precipitation over already saturated soils
will sustain at least low-end flooding concerns for the majority
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR and MVFR conditions remain this evening with SCT to BKN
CIGs between 3,000 and 10,000 feet AGL. A line of thunderstorms
is moving across central WV causing a significant amount of
cloud to ground lightning and winds 30-40 MPH as it crosses the
area. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain
across the area this evening, but a short reprieve is expected
after ~03z. Valley fog is likely to form at many sites tonight
into Sunday morning with IFR or lower conditions expected.

Another complex of showers and thunderstorms moves into the area
from the west between ~07-09z. Heavy rainfall will be the
primary risk, but isolated damaging wind gusts are also
possible. The mix of rainfall, low CIGs, and dense fog will
create poor VIS for many sites between ~07-15z. Improvement to
VFR is expected to occur between ~16-18z.

Winds will be light to calm tonight with variable direction,
becoming light(3-7kts) and S`rly tomorrow.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms tonight and
Sunday morning and associated restrictions may vary from the
forecast. Restrictions and timing associated with fog tonight
will likely vary as well.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 09/20/26
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and storms each day through
mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...LTC