627
FXUS61 KRLX 141035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
635 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quasi-stationary front located north of the area, and an upper-
level low, approaching from the west will maintain good chances
for showers and thunderstorms through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 634 AM Saturday...

Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 245 AM Saturday...

Forecast weather charts show a slow moving upper-level trough/low
pressure, rotating as it drifts south over Missouri overnight, then
moving east into the TN/KY valley on Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to east just north
of our CWA. These two features will interact to each other,
keeping unsettled atmospheric conditions into the beginning of
next week.

The upper-level low/trough will send several shortwaves over our
area providing upper-level support under unstable conditions south
of the frontal boundary. Model parameter evaluation suggests a juicy
atmosphere in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s and theta-e
exceeding 340K. Deep layered shear is very low, and PWATs about 1.5
inches does not look impressive at this time. Therefore, expect
showers and storms, with increasing in coverage and intensity during
the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. WPC guidance suggests
widespread 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain expected, with pockets of
0.75 to 1.0 inches mainly across the Tri-state area (OH,KY,WV) by
Saturday evening.

Therefore, not expecting much in terms of severe storms, but locally
heavy downpours will be capable to produce flooding of streets,
creeks, low lying and poor drainage areas. A Flash Flood Watch
may be required for Sunday or Monday.

The upper low positions just west of our CWA Saturday evening,
bringing additional support to enhance convection into Saturday
night.

It will feel muggy again with afternoon temperatures reaching the
low to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Tonight,
temperatures should drop closer to their dewpoints to produce areas
of dense fog over areas that receive rain during the past 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
Sunday due to a lingering front and shortwave energy passing over
the area. Activity could temporarily lessen overnight, but should
redevelop in the vicinity of the front and as another shortwave
approaches from the west on Monday.

With precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches, storms
are likely to be efficient rain producers capable of instigating
localized flash flooding. Locations impacted by high rainfall
amounts over the previous couple of days will be especially
susceptible to flooding on Sunday and Monday. Moderate to strong
instability could also support a few stronger storms during the
afternoon and evening hours; however, a lack of strong shear should
help to lower the risk of severe weather.

High temperatures are expected to average upper 70s to mid 80s in
the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Meanwhile,
lows are projected to range from upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

Although the aforementioned front shifts well to the north on
Tuesday, residual moisture and passing shortwaves may allow
some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity to linger into mid
week. Unsettled weather then remains possible as a low pressure
system pushes a cold front across the area late next week.

Temperatures are expected to hover near to slightly above
normal through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 634 AM Saturday...

While a quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to
east just north of our area, an upper-level trough/low pressure
moves east into the TN/KY valley today. This upper-level feature
will bring several vorticity maxes to our area, providing support
for convection. With a very juicy atmosphere characterized by theta-
e exceeding 340K and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, expect
convection to start firing up by mid morning or early afternoon.
Available moisture and the heat will provide a very unstable
environment this afternoon and evening. Expect showers and storms
developing by mid morning across NE KY and SE OH, increasing in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening. As the low
pressure gets closer, additional showers and storms will develop
into tonight.

Starting with widespread VFR conditions, showers and storms capable
to produce heavy downpours may briefly deteriorate visibility to IFR
along their path. Although confidence runs high on having
convection, it is uncertain where these storms will develop first.
Therefore, coded VCTS and PROB30 groups as my best timing estimate
closer to the HRRR and HREF models. In addition, the heavier storms
could produce strong gusty winds, capable to knock trees down.

Calm winds will become light from the southwest today, becoming near
calm later tonight.

Additional showers and storms activity is expected Saturday night as
a series of shortwaves associated with a passing upper level
trough/low cross the area. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected under showers and storms. Periods of post rain fog will be
possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of deteriorating conditions due to
showers and storms may vary from forecast. Timing of dense fog late
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 06/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy overnight dense fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ