123
FXUS61 KRLX 150650
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
250 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for portions of northern and
central West Virginia, southeast Ohio, and northeast Kentucky
from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Additional
details on the overall threat can be found in Key Message 1.

Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of rain continues through early next week. Given the
already saturated soils from this week`s rainfall, flooding
remains a concern through Monday. A period of dry weather will
then return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

This very active weather pattern will continue throughout the
weekend, finally coming to an end after a cold front passes
Monday evening.

A large area of high pressure remains locked over the southern
states. On the northern periphery of the ridge, westerly mid-
level flow will continue over the Midwest and Middle Ohio
Valley, bringing rounds of vorticity and low-level moisture
into our area, triggering the daily development of showers and
thunderstorms.

The atmosphere will remain very moist all weekend with
precipitable water values ranging from 2.00 to 2.25 inches
across the region. Dew point temperatures will be in the middle
70s each day through Monday. Any showers and thunderstorms that
develop will have the potential of producing torrential
downpours. Given the saturated soils, especially across
southeast Ohio, any downpours will have the potential of
producing flash flooding, especially if multiple thunderstorms
track over the same locations. Given recent high resolution
model runs and rainfall totals from the past several days, the
prime locations for flooding will most likely be across
southeast Ohio and northern and central West Virginia.

Drier weather will finally return Tuesday in the wake of a large
cold front. Dry weather with less humidity is expected Tuesday
and Wednesday with high pressure overhead. Another system may
approach Thursday, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected at some terminals this
morning. If any breaks in the clouds occur, MVFR or IFR dense
fog may also develop. Fog was limited to MVFR in the 06Z TAF
package, with ceilings down to IFR. Improvements are expected
between 12Z and 15Z Saturday. Thunderstorms are expected
Saturday afternoon after 17Z, and downpours can cause MVFR or
IFR restrictions.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and fog this morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 08/15/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
early next week. Brief IFR or lower conditions will be possible
with shower/thunderstorms containing heavy downpours. Where
overnight clearing occurs over wet ground, patchy valley fog and
stratus may bring early morning MVFR or IFR restrictions.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday morning for
     WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-519>526.
OH...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday morning for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday morning for
     KYZ101-103.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26