Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
701 FXUS61 KRLX 020955 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 455 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor timing changes as models are starting to agree on cold front timing for Wednesday into Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Some showers today, but more widespread and significant precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A passing trough will provide some rain showers for some areas today. However, any rainfall amounts will be on the lower side. Dry weather can then be expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing widespread precipitation. Some models are showing a few bullseyes over an inch and a half, but most of the region should receive much lower amounts. Models are in much better agreement with the timing of the system, but still vary considerably in precipitation amounts. Despite some decent shear and low level helicity values, small CAPE values should prevent strong storms, although a rumble of thunder is possible. A broad upper level parent trough swings through the area later Friday into Saturday, possibly providing some showers. Much cooler air will move in behind the front for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Despite some light rain showers today, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 11/02/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time, however isolated IFR conditions may be possible in precipitation mid to late week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY