952
FXUS61 KRLX 241731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The next weather system arrives tonight, bringing rain Tuesday
into Wednesday. Sharply colder and breezy for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...

Warm today under the influence of high pressure surface and aloft.
High temperatures across much of the region should generally top out
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Winds and cloud cover will be on the increase tonight out ahead of
the next system, thereby mitigating much in the way of fog
potential. Shower activity will move in late tonight as a warm
frontal boundary lifts north, and a shortwave approaches from the
west. A few storms will be possible during the period, but overall,
severe threat is low due to a lack of significant instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...

Initial shortwave will move east of the area at the start of the
period, followed by another shortwave/upper low that will move out
of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region, eventually
sweeping a strong cold front across the area on Wednesday. Non
diurnal temperatures are possible on Wednesday depending on timing
of front, and will be most likely across the western/northern zones.
Along with the front, bulk of moisture quickly exits the region,
leaving mostly dry conditions across the area by Wednesday evening.

Sharply colder for Thanksgiving day, along with windy conditions
across the region. There may be a need for a wind advisory Wednesday
night into Thursday across the higher terrain. Wind chills this day
could dip into the 20s to 30s area wide, except across the higher
terrain where single digits to teens will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...

Low will continue to move northeast late Thursday into Friday with a
moisture fetch setting up off across the Great Lakes. Could see some
light snow shower activity, particularly across the northern
mountains as a result. Weekend uncertain, but may start out dry
under the influence of high pressure, before another system moves in
late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...

VFR conditions with light winds through tonight, although
occasional gusts in the teens will be possible across the higher
terrain including at site KBKW after 00Z Tuesday. Some patchy
valley fog cannot be completely ruled out in sheltered/favored
river valleys, but overall, looking like clouds and winds will
mitigate much in the way of this from forming.

After 06-09Z, rain will move back into the region, with a
gradual deterioration to areas of MVFR, particularly after
14-16Z. Isolated/brief IFR cannot be completely ruled out in
heavier showers. Winds will increase area wide after 12Z, with
gusts in the teens across the lowlands, and teens to 20s across
the mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain late tonight and on Tuesday,
and associated restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in areas of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL