979
FXUS61 KRLX 061731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather prevails into tonight courtesy of high
pressure. A cold front brings beneficial rain showers early
Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry and cooler to round out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 845 AM Monday...

A strong high pressure system drifts east off the Atlantic
coast through tonight, losing its influence over the local area.
This will allow for a cold front to approach from the west
Tuesday. Boundary layer winds increase from the southwest to
20-30 knots pumping moisture in ahead of the front with PWATs
around 2.0 inches and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s by
Tuesday. Bufkit soundings show the column saturating from the
top down. Models suggest limited bouyancy with this front.
Plenty of deep layered shear, BL convergence and Storm Relative
Helicity may be enough to sustain showers mixed with
stratiformed rain on Tuesday. Thunderstorms may develop during
the afternoon aided by diurnal heating. With no severe weather
risk highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center, the primary
threat with any thunderstorms will be heavy downpours, which
will exacerbate the excessive rainfall threat. Some gusty winds
are also possible with the strongest cells.

WPC and other guidance support rainfall accumulations of widespread
1 inches across West Virginia, with up to 2 inches across the
Tri-state area (OH/WV/KY). WPC maintains a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall with this event. Recent dry days have increase Flash
Flood Guidance to about 2.5 inches in three hours. Guidance
suggests 70 percent probability of exceeding 2 inches of rain
across the Tri-state area by Tuesday evening. Although most of
the rain should be absorbed by dry soils, localized water
issues may occur over areas of poor drainage and low-lying
areas. Much of the rainfall will actually be beneficial, helping
to squash drought conditions festering in and near the Central
Appalachians.

The cold front is expected to cross Tuesday night, exiting east of
the Appalachians by early Wednesday morning.

Increasing dewpoint around 60F to the west and lower 50s
northeast mountains will make a relatively pleasant night, with
temperatures reaching the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the
lower 50s northeast mountains. Abundant cloud cover and cooling
showers will keep afternoon temperatures into the mid 70s
lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Monday...

By Wednesday morning, the cold front will have moved east of the
Appalachians, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass. Lingering
light showers will be common early Wednesday before dissipating by
Wednesday afternoon or evening.

A new high pressure builds over the Great Lakes on Wednesday,
providing dry and breezy conditions with clear skies spreading
from northwest to southeast, and prevailing through the
weekend.

This new airmass will be noticeably cooler through next weekend,
bringing temperatures to near normal, generally in the lower 70s
across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.
Tuesday night will still relatively mild, with dewpoints in the
upper to mid 50s. However, behind the front, cooler airmass will
drop temperatures to near normal, ranging from the low to mid 40s
across the lowlands, to the low to mid 30s northeast mountains.
Patchy frost has been introduced to the northeast mountains in
Pocahontas and Randolph counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

The dry extended period continues during the beginning of next
week courtesy of a high pressure at the surface and aloft. The
exception will be moisture associated with a Tropical system
anticipated to move inland across the Carolinas or Virginia
Sunday night or Monday. This feature could bring low level
moisture and associated light rain showers to the Appalachians
by Sunday night, but confidence whether this rain activity
should reach our local area is in question. Otherwise, the
autumnal weather pattern and extended period of dry and cool
weather will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through tonight at most
terminals. The exception may be IFR/MVFR ceilings developing
across the northeast mountains affecting EKN late overnight
into 12Z.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and
intensity Tuesday, as a cold front approaches from the west.
Heavy downpours are likely to reduce visibility to IFR/LIFR
along their path. MVFR/IFR conditions under periods of heavy
rain are anticipated for Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Coded TEMPO and PROB30 groups to time arrival of showers and
storms.

Light and variable winds become light southerly tonight and
Tuesday. Winds aloft increase out of the southeast around 20
knots.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of deteriorating conditions to
IFR/LIFR may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR is possible in heavier showers and perhaps thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ