849
FXUS61 KRLX 080852
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
452 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and drizzle linger as a cold front crosses early this
morning. Much cooler and drier high pressure builds in for
today and Thursday, with mountain valley frost north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

The southern stream system that brought the soaking rain to the
area Tuesday into Tuesday night was more pronounced than
forecast by most models, including a stronger surface
reflection, and the cold front almost never interacted. Rather,
the rain showers associated with the system were exiting, and
there were just a few light rain showers associated with the
cold front south of the Mason- Dixon parallel.

Interaction of the cold front with the mountains and upslope in
the wake of the front will keep showers going there through
about daybreak this morning.

Much cooler and drier air will advect into the area from
northwest to southeast on gusty northwest winds today,
beginning early this morning. Low clouds, spotty light rain
showers and drizzle, and areas of fog early this morning, will
give way to sunshine from northwest to southeast across the
lowlands after daybreak this morning, and in the mountains early
this afternoon.

Today will be cooler than Tuesday in most locations, and much
cooler than recent days prior to Tuesday throughout the area.
Highs will be near normal, in contrast to the much warmer than
normal weather of late, in the mid 60s to around 70 across the
lowlands, and mid 50s and 60s in the mountains.

Northwest winds will gust to 15 to 20 mph at times today, as a
large high pressure system over the upper midwest this morning
drifts east across the Great Lakes.

The high will build to the north of the area tonight,
slackening but not quite eradicating the pressure gradient.
Nonetheless, the deeper mountain valleys will decouple, and
given very dry air and clear sky, temperatures there will drop
into the lower to mid 30s. A Frost Advisory has been issued for
tonight into Thursday morning for the northern and central
mountains, in concert with neighboring offices. Temperatures
elsewhere bottom out from the upper 30s in northern lowland
valleys to the mid 40s on southern lowland hill tops. All told,
tonight will be the coldest of the season so far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

A large high pressure system north of the area Thursday morning
will move east, and be off the New England coast by Saturday
morning. As it does, ridging from it will build down the spine
and east side of the central Appalachians. A mid/upper-level
trough along the northeast coast Thursday morning will move
east, allowing a mid/upper-level ridge to cross Thursday night
and Friday, and a southern stream mid/upper-level to drop
southeast into the Great Lakes.

This will bring tranquil, dry, and cool autumnal weather.
Thursday is forecast to be the coolest day of the week despite
abundant sunshine. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of
the mid 60s in the lowlands, with 50s over the higher terrain.

Thursday night will eclipse tonight as the coldest night of the
season so far, and of forecast period. With the high ridging
down along the mountains, clear sky, light wind, and a very dry
airmass in place will allow strong radiational cooling, leading
to a widespread frost across the northern lowlands and the
northern and central mountains, and, in the northern mountains,
a freeze. Overnight lows are projected to be in the low to
mid-30s for most of these areas, with the notoriously colder
northern mountain valleys likely dropping into the upper and
even mid 20s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night
into Friday morning for the northern mountains, in concert with
neighboring offices. A Frost Advisory may eventually be needed
down into the central mountains and back across the northern
lowlands.

On Friday, the surface high begins to shift east of the
Appalachians. This will initiate a light southerly return flow,
allowing for a warming trend to commence. Expect continued
sunshine with high temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s to
low 70s. Friday night will remain clear and cool, but not as
cold as the previous night, with lows generally in the mid to
upper 30s in the northern mountains, and in the upper 30s to mid
40s elsewhere. The frost threat will be significantly
diminished and confined to only the most prone northern mountain
locations. Nonetheless, a Frost Advisory may eventually be
needed there.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 450 AM Wednesday...

The long-term period presents a more complex and interesting
synoptic pattern. While the weekend will start quietly, model
guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensembles (GEFS and EPS)
all show a mid/upper-level low dropping southeastward through
the central Appalachians Sunday and Sunday night. This mid/upper-
level feature is forecast to induce surface cyclogenesis off
the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday into Sunday. This
low, possibly rather intense, then drifts northward along the
eastern seaboard Sunday and Sunday night.

A slight chance for showers has been introduced for the
northeast mountains for Sunday afternoon, as the mid/upper-
level low drops southeastward through that area. Otherwise,
Saturday and most of Sunday look to be spectacular fall days as
the surface high and its dry air remain in control even amid the
mid/upper-level low passing through. Abundant sunshine will
continue, except for the northeast on Sunday, with temperatures
moderating ever so gradually.

The subsequent evolution of this coastal low is highly
uncertain. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs and a
majority of their ensemble members suggest a strong high-
pressure ridge will build over eastern Canada and Greenland.
This would create a classic Rex block, effectively preventing
the coastal storm from exiting eastward out to sea.

While uncertainty increases for Monday and Tuesday as to track
of the coastal low, pinned to the west by the Rex block, even
solutions keeping the low close to the coast should allow dry
weather to persist, and that is reflected in the current
forecast.

Temperatures will continue to moderate ever so slowly early next
week, with lowland highs up to the upper 70s and lowland lows
up to the low 50s by mid week.

These are a lot of words to say that an extended stretch of
fine, fall weather is on tap.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Widespread IFR conditions, mainly on ceilings, were associated
with a cold front crossing the area early this Wednesday
morning, with occasional visibility drops to IFR in drizzle and
fog.

The cold front will cross the Ohio River around 08Z and the
mountains by 12Z. IFR stratus will persist behind the front
through about daybreak Wednesday along the Ohio River, through
much of the morning Wednesday at CKB and CRW, and into Wednesday
afternoon in the mountains. Ceilings will then improve to MVFR
and then break up across the lowlands during the daylight
morning hours and in the mountains early to mid afternoon in the
mountains.

Visibility will improve to VFR where not already before
daybreak along the Ohio River, and around daybreak Wednesday
farther east. High pressure building to the north will bring a
VFR finish to the day Wednesday, and a VFR to the night
Wednesday night.

Light southwest surface flow will become light northwest behind
the cold front, and then strengthen and become a bit gusty
before daybreak along the Ohio River and around daybreak
farther east. These gusty northwest winds will then diminish
and become light north Wednesday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More prolonged or widespread IFR
conditions are possible as the cold front rolls through the area
early this Wednesday morning. Improvement later this Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/08/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
At least patchy IFR morning valley fog is possible each morning
beginning Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ039-040-
     518>526.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ523>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM