564
FXUS61 KRLX 300900
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and pleasant weather through Saturday morning with
patchy dense valley fog each night.

2) Unsettled weather returns late Saturday through early next
week with a heavy rain threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will build across the region over the next couple
of days providing just about the best weather you can hope for
to end the month of July. The only fly in the ointment will be
patchy valley fog each night. This could be locally dense this
morning and again Friday morning, especially along the rivers
and larger creeks with a fairly large delta between the cool air
temperatures and warm water temperatures. The fog should be less
of an issue Friday night with increasing high clouds and a
warmer night expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A positively titled shortwave swings into and across the Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday, perhaps even closing off
over or near our region early next week. This brings an increase
in shower and thunderstorm activity late Saturday through the
day on Sunday as PWATs surge to around 2 inches. WPC has been
highlighting the western portions of our CWA in their Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks and could really see this be at least a
localized issue just about anywhere Saturday night into Sunday.
The severe thunderstorm threat appears limited, however, as the
strongest kinematics push through Saturday night, largely out
of phase with the peak diurnal instability on Sunday.

Longer range models then differ on the speed with which the
upper system exits our region and the NBM maintains shower/
thunderstorm chances all the way through midweek, especially
each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in with clearing skies and
light winds. This is promoting fog development in the valleys,
which will most likely affect EKN, CRW and CKB through dawn,
with less impacts or none at all at the other TAF sites. After
the fog burns off, a scattered cumulus field should develop
during the day with light northerly winds. A repeat of valley
fog formation should then occur late tonight into Friday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could potentially become more
widespread and impactful at TAF sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 07/30/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers/storms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...ABE