Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
813 FXUS61 KRLX 030452 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1152 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major forecast changes accompany this latest forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front brings showers and possible thunderstorms for Wednesday into Thursday. 2) Cool temperatures this weekend, with upper level disturbances providing chances of showers at times. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing widespread precipitation. Some models are showing a few areas getting over an inch, but most of the region should receive much lower amounts. There is a 10% chance that some areas in Ohio and northeast Kentucky could get 2 inches. Models continue to struggle with precipitation amounts however, so confidence is low. Despite some decent shear and low level helicity values, small CAPE values should prevent strong storms, although a rumble of thunder is possible. KEY MESSAGE 2... Much cooler air will move in behind the front for the weekend. A series of upper level disturbances will move over the area for the weekend and into the next work week. This will leave some possibility of showers at times. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... With the exception of some dense fog in southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky early this morning, expect VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog could sneak into portions of western West Virginia early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 11/03/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time, however areas of IFR conditions may be possible in precipitation and low ceilings Wednesday night and Thursday, particularly across the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY