686
FXUS61 KRLX 100700
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A switch up to start the new work week as a strong low pressure
system brings cold, blustery, and snowy conditions to our area.
Many will see their first accumulating snow of the season today
as winter weather headlines remain in effect.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

A strong 500mb low and trough will continue to plunge south out
of The Great Lakes region today, eventually passing through or
just south of our forecast area. A change up on the order of
cold, blustery, and snowy conditions will be on the menu for
the near term as a result of this beast of a system.
Subsequently, the first winter weather headlines of the winter
season are in effect.

Expanded the winter storm warning to cover more locations across
the higher terrain of the mountains and Upshur County. Latest
QPF upticks and models showing prominent banding across these
areas have lead to an increase in snow totals. 4 to 8 inches
will be likely in and around the northeastern mountains.
Locally higher amounts and areas of patchy blowing snow will be
possible too. Also, expanded the winter weather advisory to
cover Ritchie, Putnam, and Wirt counties. 2 to 4 inches of
snowfall will be common in counties with an advisory.
Elsewhere, mostly 1 to 2 inches of snow will be picked up. It is
possible locally higher amounts can be achieved depending on
where heavier bands set up.

At this hour, temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s and
30s across the area. Most locations are reporting a full
transition over to snow. Some rain/snow mix is persisting
across the Metro Valley and Tri-State Area as temperatures are
still above 34-35 degrees in these locations. A lull in activity
is being reported across our Ohio counties and portions of the
Ohio River Valley.

A decent band of snowfall will drop south and push across our
area towards daybreak with temperatures further falling below
freezing. These low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and
lower 30s for the lowlands, with mostly 20s across the
mountains. A flash freeze will ensue creating slick surfaces and
some quick snow accumulations. This will be a nuisance to the
morning commute without a doubt.

High temperatures will be achieved early this afternoon
depending on extent of cloud cover with 20s and 30s forecasted
across much of the area. Portions of the lowlands are forecasted
to rise slightly above freezing. Westerly to northwesterly winds
will be gusty today with gusts between 25 and 40 mph being
common across the area. Locally higher gusts will be possible
across the higher elevations, where wind chills will likely be
in the teens and single digits.

Nonetheless, intermittent snowfall continues through the
morning into the afternoon, but models show a secondary wave of
moderate to heavy snowfall that manifests across our area this
afternoon and moves west to east through the late afternoon and
evening hours. This will line up with the low passing over or
just south of our area. This will be when a large chunk or of
the forecasted snowfall totals will be picked up across the
area as temperatures drop below freezing with the passage of
this low.

Snowfall continues this evening and overnight as temperatures
fall into the lower 20s and teens across the area. Snowfall will
be moderate to heavy, especially across the mountains as a
gradual tapering off from west to east occurs going into
Tuesday, skewing the snow showers across the mountains and
northern lowlands. Gusty winds continue with the higher
elevations seeing wind chills in the single and negative digits.
Currently, wind chills remain below criteria, but it is possible
that cold weather headlines may be needed if things change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1238 PM Sunday...

Snowfall should gradually diminish areawide by Tuesday morning as
winds shift and become west-southwesterly, cutting off the moisture
supply from the Great Lakes. Very cold temperatures will linger
throughout the day with highs only in the 20s and 30s in the
mountains and the lower 40s in the lowlands.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Wednesday as the upper-level low
pulls away into the Atlantic and ridging returns over the middle
Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1238 PM Sunday...

The long-term forecast period generally looks dry across our area
with a gradual warming trend heading into next weekend. By Saturday
and Sunday, model disagreement increases with some uncertainty
regarding the placement and evolution of the next broad upper-level
trough across the central U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 AM Monday...

MVFR and IFR conditions will continue to move in across the area
overnight with lower ceilings and precipitation. A mix of
rain and snow showers will continue intermittently across the
lowlands over the next few hours, while the mountains will
remain mostly snow. Eventually, the lowlands will switch over to
all snow by ~12z. Moderate to heavy snow will continue
intermittently through the early to mid morning hours before
some locations see a bit of a break. MVFR conditions will likely
persist though.

A heavier band of snowfall is expected to move through later in
the afternoon into the evening hours resulting in IFR or lower
conditions for many locations, especially in the mountains at
BKW and EKN. Snow showers will gradually become skewed to the
mountains tonight into Tuesday morning. MVFR and IFR
restrictions will likely persist.

Winds will be W or WNW and gusty through the period. Sustained
winds will likely be between 10-15 knots, with gusts between
20-35 knots. Locally higher gusts will be possible across the
higher ridges of the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of restrictions in low
ceilings and snow showers may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 11/10/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Tuesday morning in occasional snow
showers, especially across the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ013>020-
     024>034-040-515>517.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ039-518>523-
     525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...LTC