715
FXUS61 KRLX 110338
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1038 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and upslope snow showers overnight, with blizzard
conditions in the high terrain. Clipper Thursday night into
Friday with mainly snow. More snow late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

Initial surface cold front has cleared east of the area, with
the secondary pressure trough swiftly swinging through the
forecast area at present, with mean flow quickly veering to
WNW/NNW. This sets the stage for a transition to a more typical
lake enhanced upslope snow shower event for the overnight, with
thinking from later this afternoon not having changed much.
Temperatures continue to steadily fall, with rain showers
quickly transitioning to snow showers across the lowlands, with
most locations expected to go to all snow within the next hour.
Significant impacts continue across the northern mountains with
a general 3-6" overnight amid blizzard or near blizzard
conditions, with 1-4" expected across the rest of the mountains
and nearby foothills. Given such, no changes to the winter
headlines were needed, with all headlines running until 10 AM on
Thursday. Did issue a SPS for all zones where winter headlines
are not in effect to highlight the potential for slick spots
overnight and for the morning commute given any brief, heavier
snow showers or refreeze, with PoPs overnight into the morning
commute increased to reflect this.

As of 410 PM Wednesday...

Surface cold front is currently progressing through the western
CWA, located just east of the Ohio River. The front will
quickly shift through the area over the next couple of hours,
with a secondary boundary further northwest across the northern
Ohio Valley pivoting across the area through early tonight.
Given such, temperatures will continue to slowly fall, with a
gradual transition from rain to snow area-wide by late evening
into the early overnight. Winds will remain breezy to gusty with
CAA, but could be perhaps strongest along the boundaries as
they pivot through given some fairly stout showers on radar
currently in association with them.

Hazardous conditions will continue across the mountains given
all snow (4-8"+) and high winds, resulting in blizzard or near
blizzard conditions. Lighter accumulations (1-4") are expected
overnight across the rest of the higher terrain, along with
breezy to gusty winds. A light coating of snow could even occur
across some locations in the lowlands given any brief, but
heavier snow showers overnight courtesy of lake moisture as mean
flow quickly veers following the passage of the second boundary.
This combined with falling temperatures could lead to slick
conditions for the Thursday morning commute in some areas. Made
minor adjustments to temperatures, wind gusts, and PoPs through
the evening, with the rest of the forecast on track.

As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

A cold front will move across the area on today. Some rain can
be expected in advance of the front for most areas, while higher
elevations of the West Virginia mountains will see snow. With
the strong winds and snow, will keep the Blizzard Warning for
the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains.
There could be a break from blizzard conditions this afternoon.

Colder air behind the cold front will cause an upslope snow
event from late today into Thursday. This will cause the
blizzard conditions to set back in for the higher elevations of
the West Virgina northern mountains. These conditions should
continue into Thursday morning, when the upslope snow begins to
taper off. The Thursday morning commute could be slick on
untreated roads for much of the region, especially in and just
west of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

A strong clipper will effect the area Thursday night into
Friday, providing wintry weather. Currently thinking 2 to 4
inches across most of the area. With cold air over the area
Wednesday night and Thursday in advance of this system, expect
the snow to stick quickly to roads. This system has the
potential to create a messy commute for Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Yet another system can be expected for late Saturday into
Sunday. This system should be mainly snow, but could be centered
further north, with the main 2 to 4 inch axis from Parkersburg
to Clarksburg. Much colder air will move in behind this system,
providing upslope snow. Temperatures on Sunday should stay well
below freezing. The cold temperatures combined with the wind
should create wind chills below -10 F in the higher elevations
of the West Virginia mountains. A Wind Chill Advisory may be
needed for Sunday and Sunday night in that area.

A high pressure system will then build across the area for
Monday and Tuesday providing dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

A cold front shifts east of the area this evening. Mountain snow
showers will continue overnight, with rain showers across the
lowlands transitioning to snow showers through early tonight.
Snow showers will be heaviest and most consistent across the
higher terrain, but brief, heavier snow showers across the
lowlands remain possible at times, with low confidence in
timing/placement. In terms of restrictions, this results in
primarily MVFR/IFR CIGs, although brief VFR throughout the night
remains possible, primarily across the lowlands. VSBY will
vary, with MVFR/IFR/LIFR expected with snow showers. VSBY
restrictions will be most consistent at BKW/EKN, but could occur
at all terminals, with TEMPO groups coded in to represent this
possibility.

Snow showers will taper off throughout Thursday morning, perhaps
lingering into the early afternoon across the mountains. MVFR
CIGs dominate, with brief VFR once again possible across
primarily the northern lowlands. MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions
persist with snow showers.

Surface flow veers to WNW this evening following the passage of
the front, then remains as such through the majority of the TAF
period, eventually backing to WSW/W by the end of the TAF
period. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts at present across the lowlands
will ease throughout the night, with breezes of 12-18 kts
possible on Thursday. Gusts of 20-35 kts remain possible through
the night across the mountains, with gusts of 15-25 kts
expected on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings will likely bounce and vary from
the forecast at times. Visibility will be highly variable depending
on snow showers, likely varying from the forecast at times.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible area-wide Thursday night and Friday,
and again late Saturday into Sunday with snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ034-
     515>521-525.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/GW
NEAR TERM...RPY/GW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...GW