590
FXUS61 KRLX 300600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The outer moisture shield from Imelda will bring some clouds
today. After today, no appreciable chance for precipitation is
expected until the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

Moisture associated with Imelda, located well off the Florida
coast, will continue to stream northwestward into the forecast
area this morning. This will result in a mid to high level cloud
shield, particularly across the eastern half of the CWA. While
this will limit the potential for widespread dense valley fog,
some patchy fog is still anticipated in the river valleys,
especially along the Ohio River where winds are expected to
become calm. As the combination of available moisture and weak
ascent may be enough to trigger a few isolated light rain
showers across the highest elevations of the mountains today,
but little, if any accumulation is expected. Temperatures today
will be a few degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

The influence from Imelda will wane tonight as the system moves
further out to sea. This will allow for the cloud cover to exit
from west to east, leading to clearing skies after midnight.
With light winds and clearing skies, radiational cooling will
become more efficient, setting the stage for more widespread
valley fog development late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

A large area of high pressure will settle over the region for the
middle of the week, leading to dry conditions and mostly clear
skies. This pattern will be conducive to strong radiational cooling
at night. Valley fog is expected to develop both Wednesday and
Thursday mornings, likely persisting for a few hours after
sunrise in the deeper, sheltered valleys.

With a drier airmass in place, overnight low temperatures will be
cooler than recent nights. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s
for most lowland locations, with 40s in the mountains. In areas
subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers, particularly in
the mountains, temperatures may dip into the mid 30s Wednesday
and Thursday nights. This could result in some patchy frost
development. Afternoon high temperatures will be near seasonal
normals, generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

An upper level ridge is forecast to build across the eastern United
States through the long term period. This will maintain a dry and
quiet weather pattern across the region. Sunny skies and gradually
warming temperatures are expected each day. Highs will return to the
low 80s by the weekend, which is several degrees above normal for
early October. No precipitation is expected through at least
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

A mid to high cloud shield streaming from tropical storm Imelda
may limit the extent of overnight fog development. Nonetheless,
some river valley fog is still expected to reduce conditions to
MVFR or IFR at KEKN and perhaps PKB/CKB/CRW between 10Z and
14Z. Winds will be light and generally from the northeast. As
skies clear out tonight, more widespread IFR valley fog is
anticipated for Wednesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on overnight/morning fog, otherwise
high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions due to fog overnight
into this morning may vary from forecast, especially given the
cloud shield.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/30/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP