876
FXUS61 KRLX 110737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
237 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and upslope snow showers early this morning, with
blizzard conditions in the high terrain. Clipper crosses tonight
into Friday with mainly snow. More snow late Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

A cold front has moved east of the area, but scattered snow
showers are still traversing the area. Snow showers will
continue through the morning and will be moderate to heavy at
times. Due to strong NW winds, blowing snow is likely at times
in the higher elevations of the northeastern mountains resulting
in blizzard conditions.

Radar and models show the heaviest repeating bands setting up at
across the southern coalfields of WV, southern mountains of
WV/VA, and across the usual upslope zone of Randolph and
Pocahontas Counties. Will keep Winter Weather and Blizzard
headlines going across these areas. Will also assess the need
to expand the Advisory south from McDowell into Buchanan and
Dickenson Counties in VA if bands look to produce Advisory
criteria snowfall, but currently models keep amounts at most 1
to 1.5 inches in these areas.

Light snowfall, generally less than an inch, will fall across
most of the lowlands and areas outside of headlines. Some
amounts closer to 2 inches are possible along the foothills.
Issued area-wide special weather statements for locations
outside of headlines to cover the snowfall expected and slick
roads due to flash freeze. Will likely keep these statements
going through the morning commute as untreated and secondary
roads could be slick.

Most of this snow will fall between now and the 6-8am time
frame, with activity tapering off and becoming more confined to
the mountains late morning into the afternoon. Northwest to
westerly winds will also be decreasing as the morning
progresses. Still some gusts between 15 and 25 mph are possible
across the lowlands, with 20 to 30 mph in the mountains at times
through the afternoon. High temperatures will be below freezing
today with maybe a few lowland spots reaching two to three
degrees above freezing. Most of our mountain locations will
remain in the upper teens and 20s today.

Our secondary system in the form of a very strong clipper will
arrive tonight. Snowfall is projected to overspread from
southwest to northeast between 10pm and 12am tonight with more
area wide impacts and accumulations expected. To avoid
confusion, going to wait until current headlines expire to
issue headlines for this next system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Snowfall will continue Friday morning with most of the amounts
falling between 7am and 1pm. That said, the morning commute
will be impacted for most locations. Temperatures will warm
above freezing across the lowlands by the afternoon causing rain
to mix in at times until a secondary clipper moves through
Friday night into Saturday. This will result in another flash
freeze and change over to all snow late Friday into Saturday.
Light accumulations will be possible.

Currently, expecting between 1 and 3 inches for most of the area
with this system. The higher end of this range is projected to
set up across the mountains and along and south of the I-64/I-77
corridor. This could shift either directions though if changes
occur with the track of this system, so this is not a set range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Another system is expected Saturday into Sunday. Most locations
stand a decent shot at seeing 2 to 4 inches of snow out of this
system with the higher end of that range and locally higher
amounts projected across the northern lowlands and northeastern
mountains.

An arctic air mass will then entrench the region behind
this snowfall. Temperatures will drop into the teens and single
digits late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday`s highs won`t even make
it into the 20s across our area. Wind chills between -10 and -20
will be felt across the higher elevations of the mountains and
will likely warrant wind chill/extreme cold headlines.
Especially Sunday night into Monday with lows projected to be in
the single and negative digits.

High pressure provides dry weather Monday into Tuesday, but with
below normal temperatures. Warming trend starts Wednesday into
Thursday with 40s and 50s on the board across portions of the
lowlands. Active weather in the form of rain chances also arrive
mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Cold front has moved east of the area. Snow showers will
continue through the morning, with sustained heavier snow
expected across the mountains where blowing snow may be possible
at times from gusty winds. The lowlands will mostly see
intermittent light snow showers, but radar shows some hefty
bands moving across the area containing moderate to heavy
snowfall. Timing and location of snow showers is of low to
medium confidence, so TEMPO groups have been added for most
sites.

MVFR/IFR CIGs and VIS will continue with LIFR impacting BKW at
times. HTS and PKB may see VFR conditions in between bands of
snow.

Snow showers will gradually taper off from west to east after
~12z, but some lingering upslope is possible across the
northeastern portion of the mountains (EKN). MVFR and some IFR
CIGs will remain during the day Thursday. Some fleeting VFR is
possible at CKB, HTS, and PKB.
15-25 kts at present across the lowlands

Winds will be out of the NW with gusts between 15-25 kts. Gusts
of 20-35 kts remain possible through the night across the
mountains. Gusts will be decreasing as the morning goes on, but
will likely be breezy at times during the day Thursday. Winds
will shift W Thursday afternoon, then SW in the evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility will likely
fluctuate between categories at times this morning. Timing,
location, and intensity of snow showers could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        THU 12/11/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EST 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible area-wide Thursday night and Friday,
and again late Saturday into Sunday with snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ034-515>521-525.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ522-523-
     526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC