Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
247 FXUS61 KRLX 280913 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 513 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added some small chances of precipitation to the northern West Virginia mountains early this morning as the low off the east coast wraps moisture into the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) A warming trend bringing daytime temperatures back into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday will precede rain chances Thursday night into the weekend with a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Quiet conditions and northerly flow will persist through Tuesday as the coastal low tracks northeastward toward Nova Scotia. Upper-level ridging builds over the eastern United States by Tuesday night, allowing low-level flow to transition to the southwest by Wednesday. This return flow will drive a noticeable warming trend, with lowland daytime high temperatures surging back into the upper 70s and 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will then push southward into the region Thursday night and Friday. This will bring chances of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, to the region. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... After some river valley fog over southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia burns off this morning, some MVFR clouds could persist today and this evening over northern West Virginia, but expect VFR conditions further south and west. Some river valley fog will form again tonight in southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Some MVFR clouds are possible in northeastern West Virginia. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of MVFR clouds over northern West Virginia could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/28/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L M H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in river valley fog over southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia Tuesday morning. IFR in river valley fog possible Tuesday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY