104
FXUS61 KRLX 151819
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
219 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18Z Aviation Discussion update. Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall has been trimmed out of the majority of the forecast
area with the latest WPC outlook for Wednesday, stemming from a
northward trend in the axis of projected heavy rainfall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, hot, and muggy weather hangs about into Wednesday
before influential high pressure departs. Heat and humidity will
linger further into the week and weekend before the cold front
pushes through.

2) Turning active once more beginning early Thursday onward with
the arrival of a cold front. The front is progged to become
quasi-stationary in the vicinity of the forecast area late in
the week into the weekend, serving up daily chances of showers
and storms. Some of which could be capable of causing severe
weather and flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong diurnal rises are underway this afternoon amid ample
sunshine and warm air advection. High pressure supplying dry
weather has become elongated along the eastern seaboard, which
is anticipated to provide one more day of strong subsidence over
the forecast area before succumbing to an encroaching frontal
boundary late Wednesday night into Thursday. Until then, expect
another hot and muggy day on Wednesday, with heat indices
stretching into the upper 90s for much of the lowlands and
70s/80s along the higher terrain.

While turning more active for the second half of the work week,
discussed in greater detail in Key Message 2, the heat and
humidity festers into the weekend. Unseasonably warm
temperatures remain planted over the Central Appalachians while
a frontal boundary remains draped to the north. Once this front
ventures through the area, which is currently not slated to
occur until sometime late in the weekend or early next week,
daily heat and humidity is expected to triumph.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

An axis of showers and storms draped along a frontal boundary,
currently positioned through the Central Plains into the Great
Lakes, will gradually encroach into the forecast area for the
second half of the work week into the weekend as influential
high pressure erodes. This opens the door for daily shower and
storm chances starting as early as Wednesday evening, then
increasing in earnest for Thursday onward as the boundary
resides in close quarters to the forecast area. Zonal flow aloft
will fail to push this boundary along, resulting in a multi-day
stretch of unsettled weather.

Convective signals do not yet reflect much in the way of severe
weather with this feature. There will be greater concern once
again for high water issues that arise within this weather
pattern. Heavy downpours and training storms will tack on an
abundance of rainfall over already saturated soils that will
lead to localized to areawide flooding, seen repeatedly so far
this summer and early fall. This will be heavily dependent on
where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up each day. Latest
excessive rainfall outlook has removed the marginal risk that
was included for Wednesday given a northward trend in model
rainfall amounts and the amount of dry air still hovering over
the region that precipitation will have to initially overcome.
Proceeding into the end of the week when rainfall trends are
expected to ramp up, the marginal risk will be deeply rooted
over the forecast area, with upgrades to a slight certainly not
out of the question.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pleasant flight conditions are underway this afternoon under the
guidance of high pressure. Some fair weather cumulus may attempt
to develop over the next few hours, but fades quickly with the
loss of daytime heating. Another decent signal for river valley
fog is present late tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly
affecting CRW, EKN, and PKB. Morning fog erosion will then
branch out into one more day of dry weather and afternoon
cumulus fields before turning active once more on Thursday.

Light and variable winds are anticipated through the bulk of the
TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage, timing, and associated
restrictions tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Patchy IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog each
morning throughout the work week, most likely in the valleys in
and near the higher terrain. Brief IFR conditions are possible
at times late Wednesday night onward within showers/storms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05