831
FXUS61 KRLX 152244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
644 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with
periodic low amplitude frontal systems passing through. Locally
heavy showers and storms each afternoon are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 644 PM Tuesday...

No changes needed to the forecast. Seeing a complex of
stationary showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern
mountains. Will have to monitor for flash flooding across this
area due to these cells barely moving. Overall they are lacking
in longevity though due to nearly nonexistent shear.

As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

* Tropically influenced airmass remains anchored across the region
  through the bulk of the forecast

* Locally heavy, diurnally enhanced rainfall - water issues may
  accumulate over the next week

* Wet microbursts may produce locally damaging wind gusts, but
  widespread severe weather is not expected in the next 7 days

A mid-level ridge anchored over the southeast and nearly stationary
boundary draped west to east across the forecast area are the
dominant synoptic features affecting the region through the near
term period. South of the front, precipitable water values are
around the 75th+ percentile for this time of the year today,
increasing to 90th+ percentile for Wednesday.

Although mid-level lapse rates remain rather paltry (~5.5C/km)
typical of a tropically influenced airmass, ample low level moisture
and surface heating should yield 1000-2000J/kg MLCAPE by peak
heating this afternoon. With deep-layer shear forecast to remain
weak, the convective mode will strongly favor pulse-type cells and
loosely organized multicell clusters. The probability of thunder in
any 1-hour period peaks between 20Z and 00Z at around 30-40% for
many locations in and near the higher terrain. Given the degree of
instability and moisture, any storm will be capable of producing
torrential rainfall with a few instances of gusty winds associated
with wet microbursts.

Convection will wane tonight with the loss of solar heating.
However, lingering outflow boundaries from any afternoon activity
could serve as a focus for isolated showers or a storm overnight, a
low-probability scenario reflected in the NBM`s overnight PoPs of 10-
20%.

For Wednesday, will see similar convective coverage (isolated to
scattered) early afternoon into mid-afternoon, with an approaching
mid-level wave from the west providing forcing for ascent for more
substantial coverage heading into the late afternoon and evening
hours. Models to depict a belt of stronger H500 flow associated with
this feature across the Middle Ohio Valley yielding an uptick in
deep layer shear to 35-40KTs. This should yield at least some
potential for rotating storms in this area through the late
afternoon and early evening. The primary threat with this activity
would damaging wind gusts and locally very heavy rainfall, although
the progressive nature of the storms should help to limit dwell time
over any given location. While low level veering of the wind profile
will be fairly limited, given the propensity for rotating storm and
fairly low LCL values couldn`t rule out some sort of mesoscale
oddity yielding a quick spin-up, but the probability is very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Not much change in the pattern is expected in the extended forecast
with upper level ridging remaining over the southeast with high
zonal flow across the north featuring periodic weak frontal
boundaries that approach and stall over the region. This will
maintain a tropically influenced airmass with relatively weak flow
through the period. Central guidance continues to overdo afternoon
mixed dew points with values in the upper 70s, reality will be
closer to the lower 70s. This should keep heat indices below
advisory criteria with highs in the low 90s. The main concern will
continue to be locally heavy rain and with such a long period of
diurnal enhanced locally heavy rain, we will continue to accumulate
areas of overly moist soils more prone to flooding with additional
heavy rainfall. Depending on antecedent conditions, may eventually
need a flash flood watch for some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

As mentioned in the short term discussion, largely more of the same
is expected heading into the weekend and into early next week with
low amplitude frontal boundaries interacting with a tropically
influenced air mass. Models are in fairly good agreement even
through the end of the forecast with the subtropical ridge not
expected to go anywhere in the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 PM Tuesday...

Cluster of nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms across
the northeastern mountains with a few cells moving in from the
southwest. Sites such as BKW and EKN have the higher likelihood
of seeing convective activity this evening. Otherwise, VCTS and
TEMPO groups were added for sites of less chance.

Expecting some fog formation overnight, but not as dense as last
night due to expected cloud cover. Most sites will likely
remain MVFR with a few sites going IFR, particularly any sites
that see rainfall such as EKN. Any fog will dissipate by ~12-14z
Wednesday.

Winds will remain light and variable through the period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from forecast. Fog formation could
also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours
through the week. IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight,
especially where any heavy rain falls during the day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC