708
FXUS61 KRLX 301020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
620 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area should remain dry through early next week,
though a few storms could develop along the mountains Sunday
and Monday afternoons. Better rain chances arrive mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Today should remain dry with below average temperatures courtesy
of northerly flow and cold air advection with mostly clear
skies. Once again temperatures will struggle to get to the 80
degree mark around the Tri-state area and Charleston Metro area,
however the rest of the lowlands will sit in the mid to
possibly the upper 70s. For the mountains, they will sit at a
refreshing mid to upper 60s.

Weak high pressure will be enough along with northwesterly
upper level flow to dry us out and keep us settled for today and
into the overnight hours. At that time, temperatures will drop
to well below seasonable with optimal radiational cooling taking
place as surface flow should decouple. This will allow for lows
to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s across the lowlands and
the mountains with the potential for river valley fog
development to take place in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Focus shifts to Sunday where a short wave enters the region and
influences our area with some moisture advection and lift to
potentially create some chances for mountain showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. There could be some nighttime activity as the short
wave passes through the area, but the chance or probability is
low and would likely be light shower activity, if anything.

Come Monday, the short wave turns into an upper low and drifts
off to the east while supporting some shower and storm activity
to southwest Virginia which would be diurnal in nature.
Temperatures increase slightly due to southeasterly flow which
will help create some upslope activity along the eastern sides
of the mountains. Blended model guidance does not like the
solution of possible upslope activity and since the probability
is low elected to leave out mention of the potential there, but
we cannot ruled an isolated shower or storm out.

More activity is expected on Tuesday as a disturbance to the
west advects chances for showers or storms to mainly the
western half of the CWA. Temperatures will drop slightly from
the previous day due to more cloud coverage and possible rain
activity under a more southerly flow regime providing
additional moisture along with the disturbance working in
tandem.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

By Wednesday, the aforementioned disturbance shifts toward the
east across our area proving area-wide chances for rain with
the low potential for storms to the west of the Ohio River,
mainly in the diurnal manner. Southerly flow will dominate,
however with activity and cloudy skies, temperatures will
actually fall slightly from previous days.

Starting Thursday, focus shifts toward a low pressure system
forecast to cross the Great lakes which will bring a cold front
to the region. This feature will is forecast to pass through by
late Thursday night. This front will bring higher chances of
showers and storms to where by the afternoon and evening there
will be likely PoPs and thunderstorm potential area-wide.

By Friday morning, frontal passage should take place and
lingering shower potential will also exist along the mountains
into the afternoon. Thereafter, high pressure builds in
providing dry weather once again for the rest of the weekend
potentially.

Temperatures will fall well below seasonable, especially with
cold frontal passage, but by the weekend temperatures will
bounce back up slightly.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Saturday...

Some valley fog that spilled into EKN/CRW will lift out by 13Z.
Thereafter, high pressure provides dry conditions and mostly
clear skies today and tonight. Valley fog will have potential
once again on Sunday morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/30/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in dense river valley fog each morning
through this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ