127
FXUS61 KRLX 191745
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No significant changes have been made since the last forecast
package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A break extends into this evening until chances of shower or
thunderstorm activity increase once again.

2) Active weather for the rest of the weekend and into the new
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure fleets toward the southwest although
upper level ridging will still impact the region and create
subsidence to cap us through most of today. An upper level short
wave will ride along the periphery of the ridge and raise
chances for shower or storm activity during this evening and
into Sunday morning. With the lack of strong upper level
steering storms that evolve may move slowly and cause issues of
localized flash flooding although this would be isolated in
nature.

Much of the area has been dry for at least a few days and the
ones that have not been dry have not received much in the way
of heavy rainfall, therefore mainly only flood prone and low
lying areas would be at the greatest risk for flash flooding.
WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall along the
Ohio River and west of there. The western half of West Virignia
is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well. PWATs
are up near 2 inches and DCAPE is sufficient to promote down
bursting which would cause damaging wind gusts. This is
supported by a marginal risk for severe storms by SPC across
mainly the Tri-state area where sufficient instability will
exist. With the lack of shear storms will likely not last too
long and strong to severe ones will likely be very isolated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another active day on Sunday as we will be in a marginal for
severe threat across much of the area for the afternoon and
evening. WPC has us under a marginal to slight for excessive
rainfall as well which is supportive of anomalously high PWATs
for this time of year. More isolated flooding is possible under
weak steering flow and heavy downpours. The main threat from
any strong to severe storms will be damaging wind.

More activity is then forecast as a frontal boundary drapes
across the region into midweek and promotes more chances of
unsettled weather and strong to severe thunderstorm probability
as the feature becomes quasi-stationary and meanders about the
area slowly traveling to the south.

An upper low pressure system then digs across the Great Lakes
and influences our area for the latter half of the work week
with more chances for activity under a very active weather
pattern. Temperatures will maintain below seasonable with active
weather around and the lack of high pressure to cause any
compressional heating.

By end of the work week, strong high pressure looks to build in
according to medium range models to where the region will be
blocked off from unsettled weather for at least the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected through the afternoon, then
flight conditions are likely to deteriorate as showers and
storms spread into the area this evening. Restrictions may also
be possible within areas of fog and low stratus that develop
overnight. Periods of sub-VFR conditions then remain possible as
a front sustains shower and storm activity on Sunday.

Winds are generally expected to be light and southerly today, then
turn southwesterly on Sunday. Locally strong wind gusts could,
however, be possible in thunderstorms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms and associated
restrictions may vary from the forecast. Some fog may also be
possible overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and storms each day through
mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...20