167
FXUS61 KRLX 161055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
655 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with
periodic low amplitude frontal systems passing through. Locally
heavy showers and storms are possible each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

Key Point:
* Heavy showers and a few strong storms possible today.

Yet another unsettled day is ahead as moisture and warm air continue
to feed into the area while a shortwave slides overhead. A brief
lull in precipitation could occur early this morning, then showers
and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the forecast area
during the day. Most widespread activity should occur during the
afternoon and evening hours. While precipitation should
gradually decrease in coverage overnight, a few showers could
linger into Thursday morning.

Heavy rainfall remains a possibility as precipitable water values
climb above two inches across portions of the area. Excessive
rainfall or repetitive showers could lead to localized instances of
flash flooding later today into tonight. A marginal severe
weather risk also spans the bulk of the forecast area due to a
small potential for a few stronger storms to produce damaging
winds this afternoon.

Heat and humidity may make it feel like upper 90s in parts of the
lowlands this afternoon; however, apparent temperatures could
be somewhat tempered by precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

A low pressure system, which is projected to enter the Great Lakes
region tonight, continues to track east toward northern New England
and drags a cold front into the Middle Ohio Valley by Thursday
night. The front then continues to sink down through the area late
this week.

A few strong to severe storms could be possible out ahead of
the front Thursday afternoon. Excessive rainfall also remains a
concern as rounds of locally heavy rain continue to impact the
area this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

Another system that passes to the north is expected to send an
existing front off to the north this weekend and then pull another
boundary down into the forecast area early next week. This system
and its associated fronts will help to prolong the ongoing stretch
of unsettled weather through the end of the long term forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM Wednesday...

Patchy fog will dissipate in the next couple hours allowing
flight conditions to return to VFR early this morning. Showers
and storms will spread across the area during the day, with most
extensive coverage occurring during the afternoon and evening
hours. Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
within storms today, then activity lessens tonight.

Winds should remain light with a south to south west direction
during the day, though stronger gusts may occur in storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/16/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours
through the week. IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight,
especially where any heavy rain falls during the day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20